Sergei Scherbov1, Warren C Sanderson1,2, Stuart Gietel-Basten3. 1. World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. 2. Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA. 3. Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Abstract
AIM: The aim of the study was to improve the measurement of ageing taking into account characteristics of populations and in particular changes in life expectancy. METHOD: Using projected life tables, we calculated prospective old age dependency ratios (POADRs) to 2060, placing the boundary to old age at a moving point with a fixed remaining life expectancy (RLE) for all countries of East Asia. RESULTS: POADRs grow less rapidly than old age dependency ratios (OADRs). For example, in the Republic of Korea, the OADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 in 1980 to around 0.8 in 2060, while the POADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 to 0.4 over the same period. CONCLUSION: Policy makers may wish to take into account the fact that the increases in measures of ageing will be slower when those measures are adjusted for changes in life expectancy.
AIM: The aim of the study was to improve the measurement of ageing taking into account characteristics of populations and in particular changes in life expectancy. METHOD: Using projected life tables, we calculated prospective old age dependency ratios (POADRs) to 2060, placing the boundary to old age at a moving point with a fixed remaining life expectancy (RLE) for all countries of East Asia. RESULTS: POADRs grow less rapidly than old age dependency ratios (OADRs). For example, in the Republic of Korea, the OADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 in 1980 to around 0.8 in 2060, while the POADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 to 0.4 over the same period. CONCLUSION: Policy makers may wish to take into account the fact that the increases in measures of ageing will be slower when those measures are adjusted for changes in life expectancy.