Kara K Osbak1, Jane T Rowley, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Chris Richard Kenyon. 1. From the *HIV/STI Unit, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; †London, United Kingdom; ‡Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle Children's Hospital, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and §Division of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Could we have predicted national peak HIV based on syphilis prevalence in the 1990s? Earlier studies have shown positive correlations between various sexually transmitted infections at different population levels. In this article, we test the hypothesis that there was a residual variation in the national prevalence rates of syphilis and that these rates could predict subsequent peak HIV prevalence rates. METHODS: This analysis uses linear regression to evaluate the country-level relationship between antenatal syphilis prevalence (1990-1999) and peak HIV prevalence. Antenatal syphilis data were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low-risk populations. Peak HIV prevalence was calculated based on data taken from the Global Health Observatory Data Repository of the World Health Organization. RESULTS: A moderately strong association is found for the 76 countries with data available (R = 0.53, P < 0.001). The association was weakened but remained significantly positive when we adjusted for the type of syphilis testing used. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis prevalence in the 1990s predicted approximately 53% of the variation in peak HIV prevalence. Populations with generalized HIV epidemics had a higher prevalence of syphilis in the pre-HIV period. This finding provides additional rationale to carefully monitor sexual behavior, sexual networks, and sexually transmitted infection incidence in these populations.
BACKGROUND: Could we have predicted national peak HIV based on syphilis prevalence in the 1990s? Earlier studies have shown positive correlations between various sexually transmitted infections at different population levels. In this article, we test the hypothesis that there was a residual variation in the national prevalence rates of syphilis and that these rates could predict subsequent peak HIV prevalence rates. METHODS: This analysis uses linear regression to evaluate the country-level relationship between antenatal syphilis prevalence (1990-1999) and peak HIV prevalence. Antenatal syphilis data were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low-risk populations. Peak HIV prevalence was calculated based on data taken from the Global Health Observatory Data Repository of the World Health Organization. RESULTS: A moderately strong association is found for the 76 countries with data available (R = 0.53, P < 0.001). The association was weakened but remained significantly positive when we adjusted for the type of syphilis testing used. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis prevalence in the 1990s predicted approximately 53% of the variation in peak HIV prevalence. Populations with generalized HIV epidemics had a higher prevalence of syphilis in the pre-HIV period. This finding provides additional rationale to carefully monitor sexual behavior, sexual networks, and sexually transmitted infection incidence in these populations.
Authors: Mark Richard Stenger; Stefan Baral; Shauna Stahlman; Dan Wohlfeiler; Jerusha E Barton; Thomas Peterman Journal: Sex Health Date: 2017-02 Impact factor: 2.706
Authors: Alex Smolak; Jane Rowley; Nico Nagelkerke; Nicholas J Kassebaum; R Matthew Chico; Eline L Korenromp; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: Clin Infect Dis Date: 2018-04-03 Impact factor: 9.079