INTRODUCTION: the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) estimated an increase in mortality in Italy of 11.3% between January and August 2015 compared to the previous year. During summer 2015, an excess in mortality, attributed to heat waves, was observed. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the excess mortality in 2015 using data from the rapid mortality surveillance system (SiSMG) operational in 32 Italian cities. DESIGN: time series models were used to estimate the excess in mortality among the elderly (65+ years) in 2015 by season (winter and summer). Excess mortality was defined as the difference between observed daily and expected (baseline) mortality for the five previous years (2009- 2013); seasonal mortality in 2015 was compared with mortality observed in 2012, 2013, and 2014. An analysis by cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory), gender, and age group was carried out in Rome. RESULTS: data confirm an overall estimated excess in mortality of +11% in 2015. Seasonal analysis shows a greater excess in winter (+13%) compared to the summer period (+10%). The excess in winter deaths seems to be attributable to the peak in influenza rather than to low temperatures. Summer excess mortality was attributed to the heat waves of July and August 2015. The lower mortality registered in Italy during summer 2014 (-5.9%) may have contributed to the greater excess registered in 2015. In Rome, cause-specific analysis showed a higher excess among the very old (85+ years) mainly for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in winter. In summer, the excess was observed among both the elderly and in the adult population (35-64 years). CONCLUSION: results suggest the need for a more timely use of mortality data to evaluate the impact of different risk factors. Public health measures targeted to susceptible subgroups should be enhanced (e.g., Heat Prevention Plans, flu vaccination campaigns).
INTRODUCTION: the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) estimated an increase in mortality in Italy of 11.3% between January and August 2015 compared to the previous year. During summer 2015, an excess in mortality, attributed to heat waves, was observed. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the excess mortality in 2015 using data from the rapid mortality surveillance system (SiSMG) operational in 32 Italian cities. DESIGN: time series models were used to estimate the excess in mortality among the elderly (65+ years) in 2015 by season (winter and summer). Excess mortality was defined as the difference between observed daily and expected (baseline) mortality for the five previous years (2009- 2013); seasonal mortality in 2015 was compared with mortality observed in 2012, 2013, and 2014. An analysis by cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory), gender, and age group was carried out in Rome. RESULTS: data confirm an overall estimated excess in mortality of +11% in 2015. Seasonal analysis shows a greater excess in winter (+13%) compared to the summer period (+10%). The excess in winter deaths seems to be attributable to the peak in influenza rather than to low temperatures. Summer excess mortality was attributed to the heat waves of July and August 2015. The lower mortality registered in Italy during summer 2014 (-5.9%) may have contributed to the greater excess registered in 2015. In Rome, cause-specific analysis showed a higher excess among the very old (85+ years) mainly for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in winter. In summer, the excess was observed among both the elderly and in the adult population (35-64 years). CONCLUSION: results suggest the need for a more timely use of mortality data to evaluate the impact of different risk factors. Public health measures targeted to susceptible subgroups should be enhanced (e.g., Heat Prevention Plans, flu vaccination campaigns).
Authors: Matteo Scortichini; Manuela De Sario; Francesca K de'Donato; Marina Davoli; Paola Michelozzi; Massimo Stafoggia Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2018-08-17 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: M Vercelli; R Lillini; L Arata; F Zangrillo; A Bagnasco; L Sasso; A Magliani; R Gasparini; D Amicizia; D Panatto Journal: J Prev Med Hyg Date: 2019-02-28
Authors: Corrado Magnani; Danila Azzolina; Elisa Gallo; Daniela Ferrante; Dario Gregori Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2020-05-15 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Giuseppe Liotta; Maria Chiara Inzerilli; Leonardo Palombi; Olga Madaro; Stefano Orlando; Paola Scarcella; Daniela Betti; Maria Cristina Marazzi Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2018-04-11 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Philip Setel; Carla AbouZahr; Emily B Atuheire; Martin Bratschi; Emily Cercone; Oliver Chinganya; Benjamin Clapham; Samuel J Clark; Carlie Congdon; Don de Savigny; Adam Karpati; Erin Nichols; Robert Jakob; James Mwanza; William Muhwava; Petra Nahmias; Elizabeth M Ortiz; Akhona Tshangela Journal: Bull World Health Organ Date: 2020-06-01 Impact factor: 9.408