Tineke F M Vergeldt1, Sander M J van Kuijk, Kim J B Notten, Kirsten B Kluivers, Mirjam Weemhoff. 1. Obstetrics and Gynecology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment (KEMTA) and Obstetrics and Gynecology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, and Obstetrics and Gynecology, Zuyderland Medical Center, Heerlen, the Netherlands.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model that estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence after surgery. METHODS: The databases of two multicenter prospective cohort studies were combined, and we performed a retrospective secondary analysis of these data. Women undergoing an anterior colporrhaphy without mesh materials and without previous pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery filled in a questionnaire, underwent translabial three-dimensional ultrasonography, and underwent staging of POP preoperatively and postoperatively. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using standard bootstrapping techniques. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by computing indices of overall performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and its clinical utility by computing test characteristics. RESULTS: Of 287 included women, 149 (51.9%) had anatomical cystocele recurrence. Factors included in the prediction model were assisted delivery, preoperative cystocele stage, number of compartments involved, major levator ani muscle defects, and levator hiatal area during Valsalva. Potential predictors that were excluded after backward elimination because of high P values were age, body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, and family history of POP. The shrinkage factor resulting from the bootstrap procedure was 0.91. After correction for optimism, Nagelkerke's R and the Brier score were 0.15 and 0.22, respectively. This indicates satisfactory model fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 71.6% (95% confidence interval 65.7-77.5). After correction for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 69.7%. CONCLUSION: This prediction model, including history of assisted delivery, preoperative stage, number of compartments, levator defects, and levator hiatus, estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence.
OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model that estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence after surgery. METHODS: The databases of two multicenter prospective cohort studies were combined, and we performed a retrospective secondary analysis of these data. Women undergoing an anterior colporrhaphy without mesh materials and without previous pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery filled in a questionnaire, underwent translabial three-dimensional ultrasonography, and underwent staging of POP preoperatively and postoperatively. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using standard bootstrapping techniques. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by computing indices of overall performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and its clinical utility by computing test characteristics. RESULTS: Of 287 included women, 149 (51.9%) had anatomical cystocele recurrence. Factors included in the prediction model were assisted delivery, preoperative cystocele stage, number of compartments involved, major levator ani muscle defects, and levator hiatal area during Valsalva. Potential predictors that were excluded after backward elimination because of high P values were age, body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, and family history of POP. The shrinkage factor resulting from the bootstrap procedure was 0.91. After correction for optimism, Nagelkerke's R and the Brier score were 0.15 and 0.22, respectively. This indicates satisfactory model fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 71.6% (95% confidence interval 65.7-77.5). After correction for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 69.7%. CONCLUSION: This prediction model, including history of assisted delivery, preoperative stage, number of compartments, levator defects, and levator hiatus, estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence.
Authors: Gwendolyn Vuurberg; Lauren M Wink; Leendert Blankevoort; Daniel Haverkamp; Robert Hemke; Sjoerd Jens; Inger N Sierevelt; Mario Maas; Gino M M J Kerkhoffs Journal: BMC Musculoskelet Disord Date: 2018-07-18 Impact factor: 2.362
Authors: Alfredo L Milani; Anne Damoiseaux; Joanna IntHout; Kirsten B Kluivers; Mariella I J Withagen Journal: Int Urogynecol J Date: 2017-11-22 Impact factor: 2.894
Authors: Pieternel Steures; Alfredo L Milani; Deliana A van Rumpt-van de Geest; Kirsten B Kluivers; Mariëlla I J Withagen Journal: Int Urogynecol J Date: 2018-08-29 Impact factor: 2.894