| Literature DB >> 26861366 |
Florian Fischer1, Alexander Kraemer2.
Abstract
Evidence of the adverse health effects attributable to second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure is available. This study aims to quantify the impact of SHS exposure on ischaemic heart diseases (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), and stroke in Germany. Therefore, this study estimated and forecasted the morbidity for the three outcomes in the German population. Furthermore, a health impact assessment was performed using DYNAMO-HIA, which is a generic software tool applying a Markov model. Overall 687,254 IHD cases, 231,973 COPD cases, and 288,015 stroke cases were estimated to be attributable to SHS exposure in Germany for 2014. Under the assumption that the population prevalence of these diseases and the prevalence of SHS exposure remain constant, the total number of cases will increase due to demographic aging. Assuming a total eradication of SHS exposure beginning in 2014 leads to an estimated reduction of 50% in cases, compared to the reference scenario in 2040 for all three diseases. The results highlight the relevance of SHS exposure because it affects several chronic disease conditions and has a major impact on the population's health. Therefore, public health campaigns to protect non-smokers are urgently needed.Entities:
Keywords: COPD; Health Impact Assessment; environmental epidemiology; ischaemic heart diseases; second-hand smoke; stroke
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2016 PMID: 26861366 PMCID: PMC4772218 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13020198
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Relative risks for the association between SHS exposure and adverse health outcomes 1.
| Outcome | RR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 1.06 (0.96–1.19) | 1.50 (1.31–1.72) |
| COPD | 1.50 (0.96–2.28) | 2.17 (1.48–3.18) |
| Stroke | 1.40 (1.09–1.81) | 1.43 (1.28–1.61) |
1 Data based on a meta-analysis [24].
Exposure to SHS in Germany, stratified by sex and age groups, 2009 1.
| Age Groups | People Exposed to SHS (in %) | |
|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | |
| 18–29 | 72.0 | 61.6 |
| 30–39 | 49.0 | 27.0 |
| 40–49 | 46.4 | 28.1 |
| 50–59 | 42.5 | 24.8 |
| 60–69 | 27.0 | 17.0 |
| 70+ | 16.2 | 8.9 |
1 Source: GEDA survey [25].
Figure 1Number of persons affected by IHD attributable to SHS exposure, stratified by age and sex, Germany, 2014.
Figure 2Number of persons affected by COPD attributable to SHS exposure, stratified by age and sex, Germany, 2014.
Figure 3Number of persons affected by stroke attributable to SHS exposure, stratified by age and sex, Germany, 2014.
Disease cases and population prevalences attributable to SHS exposure, Germany, 2014/2040.
| Scenarios | IHD | COPD | Stroke | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | |
| Reference scenario | 441,137 (1.09) | 246,117 (0.58) | 139,103 (0.35) | 92,870 (0.22) | 186,281 (0.46) | 101,734 (0.24) |
| Reference scenario | 525,921 (1.46) | 269,788 (0.72) | 170,525 (0.47) | 99,863 (0.27) | 248,792 (0.69) | 112,438 (0.30) |
| Scenario 20% success rate | 420,737 (1.16) | 215,831 (0.58) | 136,420 (0.38) | 97,914 (0.21) | 199,033 (0.55) | 89,950 (0.24) |
| Scenario 100% success rate | 262,960 (0.73) | 134,894 (0.36) | 85,262 (0.24) | 49,946 (0.13) | 124,396 (0.34) | 56,219 (0.15) |