Predictors of outcome after single-event multilevel surgery in children with cerebral palsy: a retrospective ten-year follow-up study.

AIMS: Single event multilevel surgery (SEMLS) has been shown to improve gait in children with cerebral palsy (CP). However, there is limited evidence regarding long-term outcomes and factors influencing them.
METHODS: In total 39 children (17 females and 22 males; mean age at SEMLS ten years four months, standard deviation 37 months) with bilateral CP (20 Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level II and 19 GMFCS level III) treated with SEMLS were included. Children were evaluated using gait analysis and the Gait Deviation Index (GDI) before SEMLS and one, two to three, five and at least ten years after SEMLS. A linear mixed model was used to estimate the effect of age at the surgery, GMFCS and follow-up period on GDI.
RESULTS: There was a mean improvement of 12.1 (-15.3 to 45.1) GDI points one year after SEMLS (p < 0.001) and 10.3 (-23.1 to 44.2) GDI points ten years after SEMLS compared with before SEMLS (p < 0.001). GMFCS level III children aged ten to 12 years had the most improvement. The GMFCS III group had more surgical procedures at the index SEMLS (p < 0.001) and during the follow-up period (p = 0.039). After correcting for other factors, age at surgery was the only factor predictive of long-term results. Our model was able to explain 45% of the variance of the change in GDI at the different time points. TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Children with GMFCS III level aged ten to 12 are the benchmark responders to SEMLS in the long-term. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.