The impact of capacity growth in national telecommunications networks.

This paper discusses both UK-based and global Internet data bandwidth growth, beginning with historical data for the BT network. We examine the time variations in consumer behaviour and how this is statistically aggregated into larger traffic loads on national core fibre communications networks. The random nature of consumer Internet behaviour, where very few consumers require maximum bandwidth simultaneously, provides the opportunity for a significant statistical gain. The paper looks at predictions for how this growth might continue over the next 10-20 years, giving estimates for the amount of bandwidth that networks should support in the future. The paper then explains how national networks are designed to accommodate these traffic levels, and the various network roles, including access, metro and core, are described. The physical layer network is put into the context of how the packet and service layers are designed and the applications and location of content are also included in an overall network overview. The specific role of content servers in alleviating core network traffic loads is highlighted. The status of the relevant transmission technologies in the access, metro and core is given, showing that these technologies, with adequate research, should be sufficient to provide bandwidth for consumers in the next 10-20 years.