Genetic and clinical variables identify predictors for chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) may share common risk factors. Here we used a 3-stage procedure to discover novel predictors of CKD by repeatedly applying a stepwise selection based on the Akaike information criterion to subsamples of a prospective complete-case cohort of 2755 patients. This cohort encompassed 25 clinical variables and 36 genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes, obesity, or fasting plasma glucose. We compared the performance of the clinical, genetic, and clinico-genomic models and used net reclassification improvement to evaluate the impact of top selected genetic variants to the clinico-genomic model. Associations of selected genetic variants with CKD were validated in 2 independent cohorts followed by meta-analyses. Among the top 6 single-nucleotide polymorphisms selected from clinico-genomic data, three (rs478333 of G6PC2, rs7754840 and rs7756992 of CDKAL1) contributed toward the improvement of prediction performance. The variant rs478333 was associated with rapid decline (over 4% per year) in estimated glomerular filtration rate. In a meta-analysis of 2 replication cohorts, the variants rs478333 and rs7754840 showed significant associations with CKD after adjustment for conventional risk factors. Thus, this novel 3-stage approach to a clinico-genomic data set identified 3 novel genetic predictors of CKD in type 2 diabetes. This method can be applied to similar data sets containing clinical and genetic variables to select predictors for clinical outcomes.