The Nation's Physician Workforce and Future Challenges.

There is much debate about the adequacy of the U.S. physician workforce and projections of its future size, distribution and composition. Beginning with 3 observations about the workforce we believe are largely not subject to dispute, we address the debate by providing an overview of the current state of the workforce and Graduate Medical Education in the United States; a brief history of both calls for graduate medical education reform since 1910 and the recent, intense debate about the reliability of workforce projections; and a discussion of the challenges to understanding the physician workforce. We draw 3 concluding observations: (1) Precisely because projections can be unpredictable in their impact on both physician workforce behavior and public policy development, policy makers need to devote more attention to workforce projections, not less. (2) More research devoted specifically to the workforce implications of delivery and payment reforms is strongly needed. (3) Such research must be pursued with a sense of urgency, given the rapid aging of the Baby Boom generation, which will put a disproportionate demand on the nation's physician workforce.