Prediction of carotid stenosis progression by lipid and hematologic measurements.

We followed 19 men and 19 women with asymptomatic carotid stenosis up to 30 months to determine whether hematologic or lipid abnormalities could identify those individuals developing progressing carotid atherosclerosis (defined as an increase in mean percent stenosis greater than or equal to 19% or an increase in a single region of greater than or equal to 23%) on B-mode carotid ultrasonography performed at 2- to 6-month intervals. Our patients demonstrated increased beta-thromboglobulin, platelet factor 4, and fibrinogen compared with age-matched controls. Eight patients developed progression of carotid stenosis, and this group had higher baseline low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and fibrinogen than the 30 nonprogressing patients. Multiple regression analyses of age, sex, smoking, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and baseline high-density lipoprotein (HDL), HDL2, HDL3, LDL, beta-thromboglobulin, platelet factor 4, and fibrinogen identified coronary artery disease and elevated LDL and fibrinogen as the only independent variables significantly associated with the progressing group. We conclude that, in patients with carotid atherosclerosis, a combination of coronary artery disease and elevated LDL and fibrinogen will predict with 88% accuracy whether the patient will have progressing carotid stenosis.