Will reduced host connectivity curb the spread of a devastating epidemic?

The white-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is threatening the cave-dwelling bat fauna of North America by killing individuals by the thousands in hibernacula each winter since its appearance in New York State less than ten years ago. Epidemiological models predict that WNS will reach the western coast of the USA by 2035, potentially eliminating most populations of susceptible bat species in its path (Frick et al. 2015; O'Regan et al. 2015). These models were built and validated using distributional data from the early years of the epidemic, which spread throughout eastern North America following a route driven by cave density and winter severity (Maher et al. 2012). In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Wilder et al. (2015) refine these findings by showing that connectivity among host populations, as assessed by population genetic markers, is crucial in determining the spread of the pathogen. Because host connectivity is much reduced in the hitherto disease free western half of North America, Wilder et al. make the reassuring prediction that the disease will spread more slowly west of the Great Plains.