| Literature DB >> 26768570 |
Tansy Edwards1, Malcolm G Semple2, Anja De Weggheleire3, Yves Claeys3, Maaike De Crop3, Joris Menten3, Raffaella Ravinetto3, Sarah Temmerman3, Lutgarde Lynen3, Elhadj Ibrahima Bah4, Peter G Smith5, Johan van Griensven3.
Abstract
The Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2015 led to a huge caseload with a high case fatality rate. No specific treatments were available beyond supportive care for conditions such as dehydration and shock. Evaluation of treatment with convalescent plasma from Ebola survivors was identified as a priority. We evaluated this intervention in an emergency setting, where randomization was unacceptable. The original trial design was an open-label study comparing patients receiving convalescent plasma and supportive care to patients receiving supportive care alone. The comparison group comprised patients recruited at the start of the trial before convalescent plasma became available, as well as patients presenting during the trial for whom there was insufficient blood group-compatible plasma or no staffing capacity to provide additional transfusions. However, during the trial, convalescent plasma was available to treat all new patients. The design was changed to use a comparator group comprising patients previously treated at the same Ebola treatment center prior to the start of the trial. In the analysis, it was planned to adjust for any differences in prognostic variables between intervention and comparison groups, specifically baseline polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold and age. In addition, adjustment was planned for other potential confounders, identified in the analysis, such as patient presenting symptoms and time to treatment seeking. Because plasma treatment started up to 3 days after diagnosis and we could not define a similar time-point for the comparator group, patients who died before the third day after confirmation of diagnosis were excluded from both intervention and comparison groups in a per-protocol analysis. Some patients received additional experimental treatments soon after plasma treatment, and these were excluded. We also analyzed mortality including all patients from the time of confirmed diagnosis, irrespective of whether those in the trial series actually received plasma, as an intention-to-treat analysis. Per-protocol and intention-to-treat approaches gave similar conclusions. An important caveat in the interpretation of the findings is that it is unlikely that all potential sources of confounding, such as any variation in supportive care over time, were eliminated. Protocols and electronic data capture systems have now been extensively field-tested for emergency evaluation of treatment with convalescent plasma. Ongoing studies seek to quantify the level of neutralizing antibodies in different plasma donations to determine whether this influences the response and survival of treated patients.Entities:
Keywords: Ebola; Guinea; convalescent plasma; trial design
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 26768570 PMCID: PMC4738238 DOI: 10.1177/1740774515621056
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Clin Trials ISSN: 1740-7745 Impact factor: 2.486
Overview of the Ebola_Tx trial.
| Main funder | European Union |
| Sponsor | Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp |
| Study site | Conakry, Guinea |
| Study design/phase | Phase III, non-randomized, comparative study |
| Inclusion criteria | Confirmed Ebola virus disease—all ages, including pregnant women and infants |
| Exclusion criteria for receipt of convalescent plasma | History of allergic reaction to blood or blood products |
| Medical condition that precludes transfusion (e.g. decompensated heart failure) | |
| Patients arriving in a close to terminal condition | |
| Conditions that would jeopardize the safety of treating staff (e.g. agitated patient) | |
| Intervention | Two units of convalescent plasma given consecutively (adults: 2 × 200–250 mL; children: total 10 mL/kg), with each unit from a different donor |
| Titers of neutralizing antibodies were not known at time of administration (unselected convalescent plasma) | |
| Primary outcome | Survival at 14 days post administration of convalescent plasma |
| Secondary outcomes | Survival at 30 days |
| Serious adverse reactions | |
| Change in viral load after convalescent plasma treatment | |
| Safety risks in health workers | |
| Risk factors for mortality |
Figure 1.(a) Planned non-randomized design: starting recruitment under the planned non-randomized design was on consideration of adequate plasma becoming available with minimal delay. (b) Implemented design: trial recruitment started once a minimum stock of plasma was available.
Sources of bias, analytical approach and limitations in context using historic controls as the comparison group
| Possible source of bias | Problem | Analytical approach in the analysis plan to reduce bias | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Definition of a comparable starting point for follow-up for both groups: | Exclude deaths occurring up to and including the second day after confirmation of Ebola virus disease diagnosis. | Patients in both groups have a comparable starting point of the third calendar day after diagnosis ( | |
| Unbiased comparison of convalescent plasma and historic patients (with respect to follow-up time). Case fatality rate underestimated in both groups as early deaths excluded ( | |||
| With a starting point of day 3, survival status 14 days post-diagnosis may not allow a full 14 days of follow-up after the onset of treatment in the convalescent plasma group. | The primary outcome was measured as survival status 16 days after diagnosis for both plasma-treated and historic patients, as plasma administration started up to 2 days after diagnosis. | Analysis of the primary endpoint becomes mortality between the 3rd and 16th days post-diagnosis for a harmonized follow-up period. Few deaths from Ebola virus disease were expected after day 16 in either group. | |
| Patients were discharged once confirmed cured. In the trial, patients were contacted by phone to confirm survival status up to day 30, but this was not done for the historic patients. | Assume historic patients discharged confirmed cured before day 16 were alive atday 16. | It is possible that deaths between days 16 and 30 could be missed for historic patients, but these would likely be due to concomitant conditions or possible sequelae and occur very rarely. One death occurred between days 16 and 30 in a plasma-treated patient after being discharged cured of Ebola disease due to another concomitant condition. Comparison of mortality rates was confined to day 16 only. | |
| Patients still hospitalized on day 16 are counted as survivors in the primary analysis. | |||
| Accurate data capture was expected for objective factors such as age, sex and PCR cycle threshold as an indicator of viral load. | A priori adjustment for more objective measures of prognostic factors of age and PCR cycle threshold value at diagnosis, based on available literature. | Clinical symptom data may be subjective and there could be variability in reporting in the two periods or missing data for historic series patients if staff had little time for complete data collection and checking. Opportunities may have missed to detect imbalance between groups. | |
| Although the same variables of interest were being recorded with similar data collection forms by the same on-site team for historic and trial series, there may have been bias in capture of clinical symptom data over time. | Adjust for baseline factors associated with survival in historic patients and also found to be unbalanced between convalescent plasma and historic patient groups. | Effects of confounding taken into account for measured factors, but limitations remain in case of measurement error or reporting bias. | |
| Patient symptoms and clinical characteristics associated with survival may be imbalanced between treatment groups through a real effect or as a result of reporting bias. | |||
| Bias toward better survival in trial period, either through better care with additional trial focus on-site or due to lower caseload. | Residual bias may be present. | ||
| Supportive care administration could be variable over time. | Although the trial and historic data are from the same Ebola treatment center, managed by the same organization over time, it is not possible to adequately measure or account for variability in supportive care provision in the analysis. | Residual bias may be present. | |
| Receipt of additional experimental treatments such as Favipiravir would not allow evaluation of convalescent plasma with supportive care versus supportive care alone. | Exclude patients who received additional experimental treatments. | Smaller sample size but more appropriate analysis group. |
PCR: polymerase chain reaction.
Figure 2.Screening and application of the exclusion criterion of deaths up to 2 days after confirmation of Ebola virus disease diagnosis.