Estimating the Burden of Pandemic Infectious Disease: The Case of the Second Wave of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in Forsyth County, North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the second wave of 2009-2010 is important for future pandemic planning.
METHODS: Persons who presented to the emergency department (ED) or were hospitalized with fever and/or acute respiratory symptoms at the academic medical center in Forsyth County, North Carolina were prospectively enrolled and underwent nasal/throat swab testing for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus identified through active surveillance were compared by capture-recapture analysis to those identified through independent, passive surveillance (physician-ordered influenza testing). This approach estimated the number of total cases, including those not captured by either surveillance method. A second analysis estimated the total number of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases by multiplying weekly influenza percentages determined via active surveillance by weekly counts of influenza-associated discharge diagnoses from administrative data. Market share adjustments were used to estimate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
RESULTS: Capture-recapture analysis estimated that 753 residents (95% confidence interval [CI], 424-2,735) with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were seen in the academic medical center from September 2009 through mid-April 2010; this result yielded an estimated 4.7 (95% CI, 2.6-16.9) influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents. Similarly, 708 visits were estimated using weekly influenza percentages and influenza-associated discharge diagnoses, yielding an estimated 4.4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in ED and inpatient settings by capture-recapture analysis was 4-5 per 1,000 residents; this rate was approximately 8-fold higher than that detected by physician-ordered influenza testing. ©2016 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.