Geun Hong1, Kyung-Suk Suh2, Suk-Won Suh3, Tae Yoo3, Hyeyoung Kim3, Min-Su Park3, YoungRok Choi3, Jin Chul Paeng4, Nam-Joon Yi3, Kwang-Woong Lee3. 1. Department of Surgery, Ewha Womans University, School of Medicine, South Korea. 2. Department of Surgery, Seoul National University, College of Medicine, South Korea. Electronic address: kssuh@snu.ac.kr. 3. Department of Surgery, Seoul National University, College of Medicine, South Korea. 4. Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul National University, College of Medicine, South Korea.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Given the organ shortage for liver transplantation (LT) and the limitations of the current morphology-based selection criteria, improved criteria are needed to achieve the maximum benefit of LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We hypothesized that a combination of biological markers may better predict the prognosis than the Milan criteria. METHODS: HCC patients (n=123) with preoperative data on serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ((18)F-FDG PET) positivity underwent live-donor LT between January 2003 and December 2009. The cut-off values for serum AFP levels (200 ng/ml) and (18)F-FDG PET positivity (1.10) for tumor recurrence were determined by c-statistics using receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses with preoperative variables were performed to find pre-transplant prognostic factors. Disease-free survival rates and overall survival rates were analysed with regard to serum AFP levels and (18)F-FDG PET positivity. RESULTS: The 5-year disease-free survival rates and overall survival rates were 80.3% and 81.6% respectively. (18)F-FDG PET positivity (hazard ratio (HR) 9.766, 95% CI 3.557-26.816; p<0.001) and serum AFP level (HR 6.234, 95% CI 2.643-14.707; p<0.001) were the only significant pre-transplant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis; tumor number and size were not significant. A combination of criteria showed that the biologically high-risk group (AFP level ⩾200 ng/ml and PET-positive) had an HR of 29.069 (95% CI 8.797-96.053; p<0.001) compared with the double-negative group. Use of the Milan criteria yielded an HR of 1.351 (95% CI 0.500-3.652; p=0.553). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of the serum AFP level and (18)F-FDG PET data predicted better outcomes than those using the Milan criteria, improving objectivity when adult-to-adult living donor LT is contemplated.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Given the organ shortage for liver transplantation (LT) and the limitations of the current morphology-based selection criteria, improved criteria are needed to achieve the maximum benefit of LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We hypothesized that a combination of biological markers may better predict the prognosis than the Milan criteria. METHODS: HCC patients (n=123) with preoperative data on serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ((18)F-FDG PET) positivity underwent live-donor LT between January 2003 and December 2009. The cut-off values for serum AFP levels (200 ng/ml) and (18)F-FDG PET positivity (1.10) for tumor recurrence were determined by c-statistics using receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses with preoperative variables were performed to find pre-transplant prognostic factors. Disease-free survival rates and overall survival rates were analysed with regard to serum AFP levels and (18)F-FDG PET positivity. RESULTS: The 5-year disease-free survival rates and overall survival rates were 80.3% and 81.6% respectively. (18)F-FDG PET positivity (hazard ratio (HR) 9.766, 95% CI 3.557-26.816; p<0.001) and serum AFP level (HR 6.234, 95% CI 2.643-14.707; p<0.001) were the only significant pre-transplant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis; tumor number and size were not significant. A combination of criteria showed that the biologically high-risk group (AFP level ⩾200 ng/ml and PET-positive) had an HR of 29.069 (95% CI 8.797-96.053; p<0.001) compared with the double-negative group. Use of the Milan criteria yielded an HR of 1.351 (95% CI 0.500-3.652; p=0.553). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of the serum AFP level and (18)F-FDG PET data predicted better outcomes than those using the Milan criteria, improving objectivity when adult-to-adult living donor LT is contemplated.
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