Brain Biomarkers of Vulnerability and Progression to Psychosis.

Identifying predictors and elucidating the fundamental mechanisms underlying onset of psychosis are critical for the development of targeted preemptive interventions. This article presents a selective review of findings on risk prediction algorithms and potential mechanisms of onset in youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis, focusing principally on recent findings of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS). Multivariate models incorporating risk factors from clinical, demographic, neurocognitive, and psychosocial assessments achieve high levels of predictive accuracy when applied to individuals who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome. An individualized risk calculator is available to scale the risk for newly ascertained cases, which could aid in clinical decision making. At risk individuals who convert to psychosis show elevated levels of proinflammatory cytokines, as well as disrupted resting state thalamo-cortical functional connectivity at baseline, compared with those who do not. Further, converters show a steeper rate of gray matter reduction, most prominent in prefrontal cortex, that in turn is predicted by higher levels of inflammatory markers at baseline. Microglia, resident immune cells in the brain, have recently been discovered to influence synaptic plasticity in health and impair plasticity in disease. Processes that modulate microglial activation may represent convergent mechanisms that influence brain dysconnectivity and risk for onset of psychosis and thus may be targetable in developing and testing preventive interventions.