Wilson T Kwong1, Gordon C Hunt2, Syed M Fehmi3, Gordon Honerkamp-Smith4, Ronghui Xu5, Robert D Lawson6, Raymond S Tang7, Ingrid Gonzalez3, Mary L Krinsky3, Andrew Giap8, Thomas J Savides3. 1. Division of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego Health Sciences, La Jolla, California. Electronic address: wtkwong@ucsd.edu. 2. Division of Gastroenterology, Kaiser Permanente San Diego Medical Center, San Diego, California. 3. Division of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego Health Sciences, La Jolla, California. 4. Biostatistics Unit, Clinical and Translational Research Institute, La Jolla, California. 5. Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California San Diego Health Sciences, La Jolla, California. 6. Department of Gastroenterology, Naval Medical Center, San Diego, California. 7. Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong. 8. Division of Gastroenterology, Kaiser Permanente Anaheim Medical Center, Anaheim, California.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The 2015 American Gastroenterological Association guidelines recommend discontinuation of surveillance of pancreatic cysts after 5 years, although there are limited data to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the rate of pancreatic cancer development from neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years of surveillance. METHODS: We performed a retrospective multicenter study, collecting data from 310 patients with asymptomatic suspected neoplastic pancreatic cysts, identified by endoscopic ultrasound from January 2002 to June 2010 at 4 medical centers in California. All patients were followed up for 5 years or more (median, 87 mo; range, 60-189 mo). Data were used to calculate the risk for pancreatic cancer and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three patients (1%) developed invasive pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Based on American Gastroenterological Association high-risk features (cyst size > 3 cm, dilated pancreatic duct, mural nodule), risks for cancer were 0%, 1%, and 15% for patients with 0, 1, or 2 high-risk features, respectively. Mortality from nonpancreatic causes was 8-fold higher than mortality from pancreatic cancer after more than 5 years of surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: There is a very low risk of malignant transformation of asymptomatic neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years. Patients with pancreatic lesions and 0 or 1 high-risk feature have a less than 1% risk of developing pancreatic cancer, therefore discontinuation of surveillance can be considered for select patients. Patients with neoplastic pancreatic cysts with 2 high-risk features have a 15% risk of subsequent pancreatic cancer, therefore surgery or continued surveillance should be considered.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The 2015 American Gastroenterological Association guidelines recommend discontinuation of surveillance of pancreatic cysts after 5 years, although there are limited data to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the rate of pancreatic cancer development from neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years of surveillance. METHODS: We performed a retrospective multicenter study, collecting data from 310 patients with asymptomatic suspected neoplastic pancreatic cysts, identified by endoscopic ultrasound from January 2002 to June 2010 at 4 medical centers in California. All patients were followed up for 5 years or more (median, 87 mo; range, 60-189 mo). Data were used to calculate the risk for pancreatic cancer and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three patients (1%) developed invasive pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Based on American Gastroenterological Association high-risk features (cyst size > 3 cm, dilated pancreatic duct, mural nodule), risks for cancer were 0%, 1%, and 15% for patients with 0, 1, or 2 high-risk features, respectively. Mortality from nonpancreatic causes was 8-fold higher than mortality from pancreatic cancer after more than 5 years of surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: There is a very low risk of malignant transformation of asymptomatic neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years. Patients with pancreatic lesions and 0 or 1 high-risk feature have a less than 1% risk of developing pancreatic cancer, therefore discontinuation of surveillance can be considered for select patients. Patients with neoplastic pancreatic cysts with 2 high-risk features have a 15% risk of subsequent pancreatic cancer, therefore surgery or continued surveillance should be considered.
Authors: Donevan Westerveld; April Goddard; Nieka Harris; Vikas Khullar; Justin Forde; Peter V Draganov; Chris E Forsmark; Dennis Yang Journal: Dig Dis Sci Date: 2018-11-13 Impact factor: 3.199