| Literature DB >> 26640297 |
Jeremy J Cusack1, Alexandra Swanson2, Tim Coulson3, Craig Packer4, Chris Carbone5, Amy J Dickman3, Margaret Kosmala2, Chris Lintott6, J Marcus Rowcliffe5.
Abstract
The random encounter model (REM) is a novel method for estimating animal density from camera trap data without the need for individual recognition. It has never been used to estimate the density of large carnivore species, despite these being the focus of most camera trap studies worldwide. In this context, we applied the REM to estimate the density of female lions (Panthera leo) from camera traps implemented in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, comparing estimates to reference values derived from pride census data. More specifically, we attempted to account for bias resulting from non-random camera placement at lion resting sites under isolated trees by comparing estimates derived from night versus day photographs, between dry and wet seasons, and between habitats that differ in their amount of tree cover. Overall, we recorded 169 and 163 independent photographic events of female lions from 7,608 and 12,137 camera trap days carried out in the dry season of 2010 and the wet season of 2011, respectively. Although all REM models considered over-estimated female lion density, models that considered only night-time events resulted in estimates that were much less biased relative to those based on all photographic events. We conclude that restricting REM estimation to periods and habitats in which animal movement is more likely to be random with respect to cameras can help reduce bias in estimates of density for female Serengeti lions. We highlight that accurate REM estimates will nonetheless be dependent on reliable measures of average speed of animal movement and camera detection zone dimensions.Entities:
Keywords: Panthera leo; REM; Serengeti; camera traps; density estimation; habitat; lion; random encounter model
Year: 2015 PMID: 26640297 PMCID: PMC4657488 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.902
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Wildl Manage ISSN: 0022-541X Impact factor: 2.469
Figure 1(a) Location of the Serengeti Lion Project study area (black outline) in northern Tanzania and (b) layout of the camera trap grid across woodland and grassland habitats. The Serengeti–Mara ecosystem encompasses key protected lion populations in Serengeti National Park (NP) and the Masai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) in Kenya.
Mean 75% pride home-range kernel area (HR; in km2) of lions in the Serengeti Lion Project study area during the dry season of 2010 and the wet season of 2011, and buffer width added to the habitat polygon for the different season-habitat combinations considered (w; in km)
| Season-habitat | No. of prides | Mean HR area | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-G | 13 | 49.1 | 4.0 | 2.6–5.2 |
| D-W | 10 | 46.6 | 3.9 | 2.8–5.3 |
| W-G | 13 | 78.0 | 5.0 | 3.5–6.2 |
| W-W | 10 | 51.6 | 4.1 | 2.2–5.0 |
D-G, dry season-grassland; D-W, dry season-woodland; W-G, wet season-grassland; W-W, wet season-woodland.
Camera effort (in days) and number of independent photographic events of female Serengeti lions recorded in total and at night only for the different habitats considered during the dry season of 2010 and the wet season of 2011. V and V represent average speed of lion movement (in km/hr) over the 24-hour period and at night (± SE), respectively, and were derived from 96-hour continuous follows of selected prides
| Season-habitat | Effort | Total no. of events | No. night-time events | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-G | 5,348 | 131 | 33 | 0.173 (±0.012) | 0.287 (±0.017) |
| D-W | 2,260 | 38 | 22 | 0.135 (±0.017) | 0.275 (±0.020) |
| W-G | 8,424 | 140 | 56 | 0.189 (±0.009) | 0.307 (±0.013) |
| W-W | 3,713 | 23 | 17 | 0.126 (±0.021) | 0.288 (±0.028) |
D-G, dry season-grassland; D-W, dry season-woodland; W-G, wet season-grassland; W-W, wet season-woodland.
Random encounter model (REM) and reference density (D) estimates (with 95% CI) for female Serengeti lions in grassland and woodland habitats during the dry season of 2010 and the wet season of 2011
| REM all events | REM night events | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season-habitat | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI |
| D-G | 0.467 | 0.391–0.542 | 0.142 | 0.094–0.190 | 0.124 | 0.111–0.141 |
| D-W | 0.375 | 0.211–0.539 | 0.213 | 0.096–0.330 | 0.142 | 0.111–0.170 |
| W-G | 0.294 | 0.222–0.366 | 0.145 | 0.109–0.181 | 0.124 | 0.112–0.142 |
| W-W | 0.147 | 0.093–0.201 | 0.095 | 0.050–0.139 | 0.083 | 0.072–0.120 |
D-G, dry season-grassland; D-W, dry season-woodland; W-G, wet season-grassland; W-W, wet season-woodland.
Figure 2Absolute percentage errors associated with random encounter model (REM) estimates of female lion density in the Serengeti Lion Project study area during the dry season of 2010 and the wet season of 2011. Reference density is symbolized by the dashed horizontal line at 0% error. Bars represent errors in the estimates derived from all (light gray) or night-time only (dark gray) photographic events. Season-habitat combinations are defined as follows: dry season-grassland (D-G), dry season-woodland (D-W), wet season-grassland (W-G), and wet season-woodland (W-W). Error brackets represent the percentage errors of 95% confidence intervals associated with REM estimates.