Kwok M Ho1, Teresa A Williams2, Yusra Harahsheh3, Thomas L Higgins4. 1. Department of Intensive Care, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Australia; School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; School of Veterinary & Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia. Electronic address: kwok.ho@health.wa.gov.au. 2. School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine, Curtin University, Perth, Australia. Electronic address: teresa.williams@curtin.edu.au. 3. Department of Intensive Care, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Australia. Electronic address: Yusra.Harahsheh@health.wa.gov.au. 4. Medicine, Surgery & Anesthesiology, Baystate Franklin Medical Center, Springfield, MA; Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA. Electronic address: Thomas.Higgins@baystatehealth.org.
Abstract
PURPOSE: This study compared the performance of 3 admission prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patient admission characteristics and hospital outcome of 9549 patients were recorded prospectively. The discrimination and calibration of the predicted risks of death derived from the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS III), Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0 III), and admission Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a calibration plot, respectively. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 9549 patients included in the study, 1276 patients (13.3%) died after intensive care unit admission. Patient admission characteristics were significantly different between the survivors and nonsurvivors. All 3 prognostic scores had a reasonable ability to discriminate between the survivors and nonsurvivors (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for SAPS III, 0.836; MPM0 III, 0.807; admission APACHE, 0.845), with best discrimination in emergency admissions. The SAPS III model had a slightly better calibration and overall performance (slope of calibration curve, 1.03; Brier score, 0.09; Nagelkerke R(2), 0.297) compared to the MPM0 III and admission APACHE II model. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 intensive care unit admission prognostic scores had a good ability to predict hospital mortality of critically ill patients, with best discrimination in emergency admissions.
PURPOSE: This study compared the performance of 3 admission prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Patient admission characteristics and hospital outcome of 9549 patients were recorded prospectively. The discrimination and calibration of the predicted risks of death derived from the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS III), Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0 III), and admission Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a calibration plot, respectively. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 9549 patients included in the study, 1276 patients (13.3%) died after intensive care unit admission. Patient admission characteristics were significantly different between the survivors and nonsurvivors. All 3 prognostic scores had a reasonable ability to discriminate between the survivors and nonsurvivors (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for SAPS III, 0.836; MPM0 III, 0.807; admission APACHE, 0.845), with best discrimination in emergency admissions. The SAPS III model had a slightly better calibration and overall performance (slope of calibration curve, 1.03; Brier score, 0.09; Nagelkerke R(2), 0.297) compared to the MPM0 III and admission APACHE II model. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 intensive care unit admission prognostic scores had a good ability to predict hospital mortality of critically illpatients, with best discrimination in emergency admissions.
Authors: Naveen F Sangji; Jordan D Bohnen; Elie P Ramly; George C Velmahos; David C Chang; Haytham M A Kaafarani Journal: World J Surg Date: 2017-07 Impact factor: 3.352
Authors: Jae Woo Choi; Young Sun Park; Young Seok Lee; Yeon Hee Park; Chaeuk Chung; Dong Il Park; In Sun Kwon; Ju Sang Lee; Na Eun Min; Jeong Eun Park; Sang Hoon Yoo; Gyu Rak Chon; Young Hoon Sul; Jae Young Moon Journal: Korean J Crit Care Med Date: 2017-08-31
Authors: Kwok M Ho; Norris S H Lan; Teresa A Williams; Yusra Harahsheh; Andrew R Chapman; Geoffrey J Dobb; Sheldon Magder Journal: J Intensive Care Date: 2016-06-29