A spatial-seasonal analysis of the oiling risk from shipping traffic to seabirds in the Aleutian Archipelago.

Some of the largest seabird concentrations in the northern hemisphere are intersected by major shipping routes in the Aleutian Archipelago. Risk is the product of the probability and the severity incidents in an area. We build a seasonally explicit model of seabird distribution and combine the densities of seabirds with an oil vulnerability index. We use shipping density, as a proxy for the probability of oil spills from shipping accident (or the intensity chronic oil pollution). We find high-risk (above-average seabird and vessel density) areas around Unimak Pass, south of the Alaska Peninsula, near Buldir Island, and north of Attu Island. Risk to seabirds is greater during summer than during winter, but the month of peak risk (May/July) varies depending on how data is analyzed. The area around Unimak Pass stands out for being at high-risk year-round, whereas passes in the western Aleutians are at high risk mostly during summer.