Zhifei Liu1, Chi-Tai Fang2. 1. School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, mainland China. 2. Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, 17 Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei 100, Taiwan; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: fangct@ntu.edu.tw.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Since February 2013, more than 400 laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 infection have been reported in mainland China. Little is known of the dynamics of this novel virus in poultry and human populations, which is essential for developing effective long-term control strategies for this zoonosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of screening and culling of infected poultry on the evolution of the H7N9 epidemic. METHODS: A mathematical model for transmission dynamics of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human and poultry populations was constructed. Parameters in the model were estimated using publicly available nationwide surveillance data on animal and human infections. RESULTS: By fitting a two-host model, it was shown that screening for H7N9 in poultry and culling could effectively decrease the number of new human H7N9 cases. Furthermore, the elimination of circulating H7N9 virus is possible if an intensive, but technically feasible, poultry screening and culling policy is adopted. CONCLUSIONS: Screening and culling infected poultry is a critical measure for preventing human H7N9 infections in the long term. This model may provide important insights for decision-making on a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of the H7N9 virus epidemic.
OBJECTIVES: Since February 2013, more than 400 laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 infection have been reported in mainland China. Little is known of the dynamics of this novel virus in poultry and human populations, which is essential for developing effective long-term control strategies for this zoonosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of screening and culling of infected poultry on the evolution of the H7N9 epidemic. METHODS: A mathematical model for transmission dynamics of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human and poultry populations was constructed. Parameters in the model were estimated using publicly available nationwide surveillance data on animal and human infections. RESULTS: By fitting a two-host model, it was shown that screening for H7N9 in poultry and culling could effectively decrease the number of new humanH7N9 cases. Furthermore, the elimination of circulating H7N9 virus is possible if an intensive, but technically feasible, poultry screening and culling policy is adopted. CONCLUSIONS: Screening and culling infected poultry is a critical measure for preventing humanH7N9 infections in the long term. This model may provide important insights for decision-making on a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of the H7N9 virus epidemic.