Predicting State Investment in Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services, 2000-2011.

Although state use of Medicaid home- and community-based services (HCBS) to provide long-term services and supports to older adults and individuals with physical disabilities continues to increase, progress is uneven across states. We used generalized linear models to examine state factors associated with increased allocation of Medicaid dollars to HCBS for the period 2000 to 2011. We observed enhanced growth in states that began the period with limited investment in HCBS, as reflected in significant year trends among these states. The political environment appeared to be an important influence on states' investment for states with limited initial allocation to HCBS, as was housing affordability, a policy amenable variable. There continues to be wide variation in states' relative investment, calling for additional policy attention and research.