Seohyun Lee1, Seungbong Han2, Ju Hyun Shim3, So Yeon Kim4, Hyung Jin Won4, Yong Moon Shin4, Pyo Nyun Kim4, Jihyun An1, Danbi Lee1, Kang Mo Kim1, Young-Suk Lim1, Young-Hwa Chung1, Yung Sang Lee1, Han Chu Lee1. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea. 2. Department of Applied Statistics, Gachon University, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: s5854@medimail.co.kr. 4. Department of Radiology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To develop a prognostic nomogram based on specific patient and tumor factors capable of estimating individual survival outcomes after radiofrequency (RF) ablation as a primary therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 893 patients who were initially treated with curative RF ablation for HCC; patients were temporally divided into derivation (n = 607) and validation (n = 286) cohorts. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival was developed and validated. The discriminatory accuracy of the model was compared with the preexisting Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system and the Tokyo score previously proposed for percutaneous therapy for HCC by analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: A nomogram was generated for 3-year survival, incorporating largest tumor diameter and number of tumors, serum albumin and creatinine, platelet count, prothrombin time, and serum α-fetoprotein on a logarithmic scale. It had good calibration and discrimination abilities with a C-index of 0.74. The validation results also showed that the nomogram performed well in terms of goodness-of-fit and discrimination (C-index, 0.72). Analysis of ROC curves in the validation cohort indicated that the model had better predictive power than CLIP and Tokyo scores (C-indexes, 0.54 and 0.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic tool quantifying per-patient expected survival after RF ablation can be used in daily clinical decision making with regard to patients with HCC deemed suitable for radical ablation and is probably more reliable than existing guidelines.
PURPOSE: To develop a prognostic nomogram based on specific patient and tumor factors capable of estimating individual survival outcomes after radiofrequency (RF) ablation as a primary therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 893 patients who were initially treated with curative RF ablation for HCC; patients were temporally divided into derivation (n = 607) and validation (n = 286) cohorts. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival was developed and validated. The discriminatory accuracy of the model was compared with the preexisting Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system and the Tokyo score previously proposed for percutaneous therapy for HCC by analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: A nomogram was generated for 3-year survival, incorporating largest tumor diameter and number of tumors, serum albumin and creatinine, platelet count, prothrombin time, and serum α-fetoprotein on a logarithmic scale. It had good calibration and discrimination abilities with a C-index of 0.74. The validation results also showed that the nomogram performed well in terms of goodness-of-fit and discrimination (C-index, 0.72). Analysis of ROC curves in the validation cohort indicated that the model had better predictive power than CLIP and Tokyo scores (C-indexes, 0.54 and 0.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic tool quantifying per-patient expected survival after RF ablation can be used in daily clinical decision making with regard to patients with HCC deemed suitable for radical ablation and is probably more reliable than existing guidelines.
Authors: Chang Gon Kim; Hyun Woong Lee; Hye Jin Choi; Jung Il Lee; Hye Won Lee; Seung Up Kim; Jun Yong Park; Do Young Kim; Sang Hoon Ahn; Kwang-Hyub Han; Han Sang Kim; Kyung Hwan Kim; Seong Jin Choi; Yongun Kim; Kwan Sik Lee; Gyoung Min Kim; Man Deuk Kim; Jong Yoon Won; Do Yun Lee; Beom Kyung Kim Journal: Cancer Med Date: 2019-07-10 Impact factor: 4.452