Assessing irrigated agriculture's surface water and groundwater consumption by combining satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modelling.

Globally, irrigation accounts for more than two thirds of freshwater demand. Recent regional and global assessments indicate that groundwater extraction (GWE) for irrigation has increased more rapidly than surface water extraction (SWE), potentially resulting in groundwater depletion. Irrigated agriculture in semi-arid and arid regions is usually from a combination of stored surface water and groundwater. This paper assesses the usefulness of remotely-sensed (RS) derived information on both irrigation dynamics and rates of actual evapotranspiration which are both input to a river-reach water balance model in order to quantify irrigation water use and water provenance (either surface water or groundwater). The assessment is implemented for the water-years 2004/05-2010/11 in five reaches of the Murray-Darling Basin (Australia); a heavily regulated basin with large irrigated areas and periodic droughts and floods. Irrigated area and water use are identified each water-year (from July to June) through a Random Forest model which uses RS vegetation phenology and actual evapotranspiration as predicting variables. Both irrigated areas and actual evapotranspiration from irrigated areas were compared against published estimates of irrigated areas and total water extraction (SWE+GWE).The river-reach model determines the irrigated area that can be serviced with stored surface water (SWE), and the remainder area (as determined by the Random Forest Model) is assumed to be supplemented by groundwater (GWE). Model results were evaluated against observed SWE and GWE. The modelled SWE generally captures the observed interannual patterns and to some extent the magnitudes, with Pearson's correlation coefficients >0.8 and normalised root-mean-square-error<30%. In terms of magnitude, the results were as accurate as or better than those of more traditional (i.e., using areas that fluctuate based on water resource availability and prescribed crop factors) irrigation modelling. The RS irrigated areas and actual evapotranspiration can be used to: (i) understand irrigation dynamics, (ii) constrain irrigation models in data scarce regions, as well as (iii) pinpointing areas that require better ground-based monitoring. Crown