Florian C Bonke1, Ewan Donnachie2, Antonius Schneider1, Michael Mehring3. 1. Institute of General Practice, University Hospital Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technische Universität München, Orleansstr. 47, 81667, München, Germany. 2. Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians of Bavaria, Munich, Germany. 3. Institute of General Practice, University Hospital Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technische Universität München, Orleansstr. 47, 81667, München, Germany. michael.mehring@tum.de.
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the effects of HbA1c variability on macrovascular events remain uncertain. The present investigation evaluates the association of HbA1c variability with non-fatal cardiovascular events, emergency admissions and episodes of severe hypoglycaemia in a cohort of patients newly started on insulin therapy. METHODS: HbA1c variability was defined as the rate of change in values between observations. The medical records of 406,356 patients enrolled in a disease management programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus were analysed to identify a cohort of 13,777 patients with observed transition to insulin therapy. The cohort was observed for a period of at least 5 years. Cox regression models were applied to quantify the association of HbA1c variability with the events of interest. RESULTS: The models reveal a significant non-linear association between HbA1c variability and the risk of experiencing myocardial infarction, stroke and hypoglycaemia. The lowest risk is seen with a variability of approximately 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) per quarter. Using Cox models to predict survival curves for the cohort with hypothetical HbA1c variability of 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) and 1.5% (16.4 mmol/mol) per quarter, the proportion experiencing myocardial infarction within 2 years increases significantly from 1% to 10%. The proportion experiencing stroke increases from 1% to 29%, hypoglycaemia from 2% to 24% and the risk of emergency admission from 2% to 21%. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: In patients newly started on insulin therapy, rapid and higher HbA1c variability is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, severe hypoglycaemia and emergency admission.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the effects of HbA1c variability on macrovascular events remain uncertain. The present investigation evaluates the association of HbA1c variability with non-fatal cardiovascular events, emergency admissions and episodes of severe hypoglycaemia in a cohort of patients newly started on insulin therapy. METHODS: HbA1c variability was defined as the rate of change in values between observations. The medical records of 406,356 patients enrolled in a disease management programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus were analysed to identify a cohort of 13,777 patients with observed transition to insulin therapy. The cohort was observed for a period of at least 5 years. Cox regression models were applied to quantify the association of HbA1c variability with the events of interest. RESULTS: The models reveal a significant non-linear association between HbA1c variability and the risk of experiencing myocardial infarction, stroke and hypoglycaemia. The lowest risk is seen with a variability of approximately 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) per quarter. Using Cox models to predict survival curves for the cohort with hypothetical HbA1c variability of 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) and 1.5% (16.4 mmol/mol) per quarter, the proportion experiencing myocardial infarction within 2 years increases significantly from 1% to 10%. The proportion experiencing stroke increases from 1% to 29%, hypoglycaemia from 2% to 24% and the risk of emergency admission from 2% to 21%. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: In patients newly started on insulin therapy, rapid and higher HbA1c variability is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, severe hypoglycaemia and emergency admission.
Entities:
Keywords:
Disease management programme; HbA1c variability; Health services research; Severe adverse events; Type 2 diabetes mellitus
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