Mette H Møller1, Ivar S Kristiansen2, Christian Beisland3,4, Jarle Rørvik4,5, Henrik Støvring6. 1. Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. mette.holm.moeller@post.au.dk. 2. Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Oslo University, Oslo, Norway. 3. Department of Urology, Surgical Clinic, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway. 4. Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway. 5. Department of Radiology, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway. 6. Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate changes in the stage distribution of prostate cancer during the time period where opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing was introduced. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cancer stage, age, and year of diagnosis were obtained for all men aged >50 years diagnosed with prostate cancer in Norway during the period 1980-2010. Three calendar-time periods (1980-1989, 1990-2000, and 2001-2010) and three age groups (50-65, 66-74, and ≥75 years) were defined. Birth cohorts were categorised into four intervals: ≤1915, 1916-1925, 1926-1940 and ≥1941. We used Poisson regressions to conduct both a time period and cohort-based analysis of trends in the incidence of localised, regional, and distant cancer for each combination of age groups and calendar-time periods or birth cohorts, respectively. Additionally, we explored the effect of cohorts on the stage-specific incidence graphically with a Poisson regression using 5-year age groups, and by estimating cumulative incidence rates for each birth cohort. RESULTS: The annual incidence of localised cancers among men aged 50-65 and 66-74 years rose from 41.4 and 255.2 per 100 000, respectively, before the introduction of PSA testing to 137.9 and 418.7 in 2001-2010 afterwards, corresponding to 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-3.5] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) fold increases. The incidence of regional cancers increased by a factor seven among men aged <75 years. The incidence of distant cancers in men aged ≥75 years decreased by 29% (95% CI 25-33%). These findings were confirmed in the cohort-based approach. CONCLUSION: Opportunistic PSA testing substantially increased the incidence of localised and regional prostate cancers among men aged 50-74 years, which was not fully compensated by the 30% decrease in incidence of distant prostate cancers in older men.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate changes in the stage distribution of prostate cancer during the time period where opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing was introduced. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cancer stage, age, and year of diagnosis were obtained for all men aged >50 years diagnosed with prostate cancer in Norway during the period 1980-2010. Three calendar-time periods (1980-1989, 1990-2000, and 2001-2010) and three age groups (50-65, 66-74, and ≥75 years) were defined. Birth cohorts were categorised into four intervals: ≤1915, 1916-1925, 1926-1940 and ≥1941. We used Poisson regressions to conduct both a time period and cohort-based analysis of trends in the incidence of localised, regional, and distant cancer for each combination of age groups and calendar-time periods or birth cohorts, respectively. Additionally, we explored the effect of cohorts on the stage-specific incidence graphically with a Poisson regression using 5-year age groups, and by estimating cumulative incidence rates for each birth cohort. RESULTS: The annual incidence of localised cancers among men aged 50-65 and 66-74 years rose from 41.4 and 255.2 per 100 000, respectively, before the introduction of PSA testing to 137.9 and 418.7 in 2001-2010 afterwards, corresponding to 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-3.5] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) fold increases. The incidence of regional cancers increased by a factor seven among men aged <75 years. The incidence of distant cancers in men aged ≥75 years decreased by 29% (95% CI 25-33%). These findings were confirmed in the cohort-based approach. CONCLUSION: Opportunistic PSA testing substantially increased the incidence of localised and regional prostate cancers among men aged 50-74 years, which was not fully compensated by the 30% decrease in incidence of distant prostate cancers in older men.
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