Ryota Niikura1, Atsuo Yamada1, Naoyoshi Nagata2, Yuka Kobayashi1, Makoto Okamoto3, Yuzo Mitsuno4, Keiji Ogura5, Shuntaro Yoshida6, Takuro Shimbo7, Yoshihiro Hirata1, Kazuhiko Koike1. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. 2. Department of Hepatology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, JR Tokyo General Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 4. Department of Gastroenterology, Japanese Red Cross Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan. 5. Department of Gastroenterology, Tokyo Metropolitan Police Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 6. Endoscopy and Endoscopic Surgery, The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 7. Ohta Nishinouchi Hospital, Fukushima, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The long-term recurrence rate of patients with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB) who underwent video capsule endoscopy (VCE) remains unknown. Our study aimed to identify the cumulative incidence of rebleeding, develop a predictive model of rebleeding, and evaluate whether the model can be applied in other outcomes among patients with OGIB. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study of 320 patients with OGIB who underwent VCE between 2009 and 2014. A rebleeding model was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis and evaluated using Harrell's c-index. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 43 patients (13.4%) during a mean follow-up period of 18.3 (standard error, 0.9) months. The rebleeding sources were the small intestine (n = 17), extra-small intestine (n = 13), and unknown (n = 13). The cumulative incidence of rebleeding was 11.0% at 12 months and 35.3% at 60 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that female gender, liver cirrhosis, warfarin use, overt bleeding, and positive VCE findings were significant predictors of rebleeding. The rebleeding rate was 0% in patients with no predictors and 40% in patients with full predictors (P < 0.01). The model presented a high predictive accuracy (c-statistic, 0.733). Patients with higher predictors exhibited higher transfusion requirements, longer length of stay, and higher mortality (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of rebleeding at 12 and 60 months was 11.0% and 35.3%, respectively. Five factors enable prediction of not only rebleeding but also transfusion requirements, length of stay, and death in OGIB patients.
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The long-term recurrence rate of patients with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB) who underwent video capsule endoscopy (VCE) remains unknown. Our study aimed to identify the cumulative incidence of rebleeding, develop a predictive model of rebleeding, and evaluate whether the model can be applied in other outcomes among patients with OGIB. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study of 320 patients with OGIB who underwent VCE between 2009 and 2014. A rebleeding model was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis and evaluated using Harrell's c-index. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 43 patients (13.4%) during a mean follow-up period of 18.3 (standard error, 0.9) months. The rebleeding sources were the small intestine (n = 17), extra-small intestine (n = 13), and unknown (n = 13). The cumulative incidence of rebleeding was 11.0% at 12 months and 35.3% at 60 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that female gender, liver cirrhosis, warfarin use, overt bleeding, and positive VCE findings were significant predictors of rebleeding. The rebleeding rate was 0% in patients with no predictors and 40% in patients with full predictors (P < 0.01). The model presented a high predictive accuracy (c-statistic, 0.733). Patients with higher predictors exhibited higher transfusion requirements, longer length of stay, and higher mortality (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of rebleeding at 12 and 60 months was 11.0% and 35.3%, respectively. Five factors enable prediction of not only rebleeding but also transfusion requirements, length of stay, and death in OGIBpatients.
Authors: Bruno Rosa; Reuma Margalit-Yehuda; Kelly Gatt; Martina Sciberras; Carlo Girelli; Jean-Christophe Saurin; Pablo Cortegoso Valdivia; Jose Cotter; Rami Eliakim; Flavio Caprioli; Gunnar Baatrup; Martin Keuchel; Pierre Ellul; Ervin Toth; Anastasios Koulaouzidis Journal: Endosc Int Open Date: 2021-05-27