Temporal-spatial loss of diffuse pesticide and potential risks for water quality in China.

Increasing amount of pesticide has been used in Chinese agricultural system with effects on environmental quality and human health. The comprehensive inventory of pesticide use in six main crop categories over the period from 1990 to 2011 in China was conducted. The national average pesticide use intensity was estimated 1.74k g · ha(-1) for grain crops in paddy land, 1.31 kg · ha(-1) for grain crops in dry land, 1.38 kg · ha(-1) for economic crops, 3.82 kg · ha(-1) for vegetables, 1.54 kg · ha(-1) for tea plantations, and 3.49 kg · ha(-1) for orchards. The pesticide use was estimated to be approximately 5.24 × 10(4)t for grain crops in paddy land, 1.05 × 10(5)t for grain crops in dry land, 3.08 × 10(4)t for economic crops, 7.51 × 10(4)t for vegetables, 3.26 × 10(3)t for tea plantations, and 4.13 × 10(4)t for orchards. Based on the pesticide use and loss coefficients for each category, the distribution of pesticide loss in China was calculated. Total pesticide loss in China was estimated about 4.39 × 10(3)t in 2011. The pesticide loss from six main crop categories was about 14.84% for grain crops in paddy land of total pesticide loss, 33.31% for grain crops in dry land, 10.47% for economic crops, 26.37% for vegetables, 1.08% for tea plantations and 13.93% for orchards. The results indicated that the highest pesticide use intensity and highest pesticide loss rate occurred in China's eastern and central provinces. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the uncertainties associated with estimation of pesticide use and loss rate for the six types of crops. The potential risk to national water quality was assessed and the water in the provinces of Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Beijing and Shanghai was at high risk for pesticide pollution. The implication for the future agricultural and environmental policies on reducing the risk to environmental quality was also summarized.