James A Fuller1, Jason Goldstick2, Jamie Bartram3, Joseph N S Eisenberg4. 1. Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, United States. Electronic address: jafuller@umich.edu. 2. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States. 3. The Water Institute, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States. 4. Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, United States.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Global access to safe drinking water and sanitation has improved dramatically during the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in progress between countries and inequality within countries. METHODS: We assessed countries' temporal patterns in access to drinking water and sanitation using publicly available data. We then classified countries using non-linear modeling techniques as having one of the following trajectories: 100% coverage, linear growth, linear decline, no change, saturation, acceleration, deceleration, negative acceleration, or negative deceleration. We further assessed the degree to which temporal profiles follow a sigmoidal pattern and how these patterns might vary within a given country between rural and urban settings. RESULTS: Among countries with more than 10 data points, between 15% and 38% showed a non-linear trajectory, depending on the indicator. Overall, countries' progress followed a sigmoidal trend, but some countries are making better progress and some worse progress than would be expected. We highlight several countries that are not on track to meet the MDG for water or sanitation, but whose access is accelerating, suggesting better performance during the coming years. Conversely, we also highlight several countries that have made sufficient progress to meet the MDG target, but in which access is decelerating. DISCUSSION: Patterns were heterogeneous and non-linearity was common. Characterization of these heterogeneous patterns will help policy makers allocate resources more effectively. For example, policy makers can identify countries that could make use of additional resources or might be in need of additional institutional capacity development to properly manage resources; this will be essential to meet the forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals.
INTRODUCTION: Global access to safe drinking water and sanitation has improved dramatically during the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in progress between countries and inequality within countries. METHODS: We assessed countries' temporal patterns in access to drinking water and sanitation using publicly available data. We then classified countries using non-linear modeling techniques as having one of the following trajectories: 100% coverage, linear growth, linear decline, no change, saturation, acceleration, deceleration, negative acceleration, or negative deceleration. We further assessed the degree to which temporal profiles follow a sigmoidal pattern and how these patterns might vary within a given country between rural and urban settings. RESULTS: Among countries with more than 10 data points, between 15% and 38% showed a non-linear trajectory, depending on the indicator. Overall, countries' progress followed a sigmoidal trend, but some countries are making better progress and some worse progress than would be expected. We highlight several countries that are not on track to meet the MDG for water or sanitation, but whose access is accelerating, suggesting better performance during the coming years. Conversely, we also highlight several countries that have made sufficient progress to meet the MDG target, but in which access is decelerating. DISCUSSION: Patterns were heterogeneous and non-linearity was common. Characterization of these heterogeneous patterns will help policy makers allocate resources more effectively. For example, policy makers can identify countries that could make use of additional resources or might be in need of additional institutional capacity development to properly manage resources; this will be essential to meet the forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals.
Authors: Amy Tiwari; Scott Russpatrick; Alexandra Hoehne; Selma M Matimelo; Sharon Mazimba; Ilenga Nkhata; Nicolas Osbert; Geoffrey Soloka; Anna Winters; Benjamin Winters; David A Larsen Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg Date: 2017-10-10 Impact factor: 2.345
Authors: Andrew Curtis; Robert Squires; Vanessa Rouzier; Jean William Pape; Jayakrishnan Ajayakumar; Sandra Bempah; Meer Taifur Alam; Md Mahbubul Alam; Mohammed H Rashid; Afsar Ali; John Glenn Morris Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2019-03-05 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Maurice M'bangombe; Lorenzo Pezzoli; Bruce Reeder; Storn Kabuluzi; Kelias Msyamboza; Humphreys Masuku; Bagrey Ngwira; Philippe Cavailler; Francesco Grandesso; Adriana Palomares; Namseon Beck; Allison Shaffer; Emily MacDonald; Mesfin Senbete; Justin Lessler; Sean M Moore; Andrew S Azman Journal: Bull World Health Organ Date: 2018-04-23 Impact factor: 9.408