Prediction of hip displacement in children with cerebral palsy: development of the CPUP hip score.

Hip displacement, defined in this study as a migration percentage (MP) of more than 40%, is a common, debilitating complication of cerebral palsy (CP). In this prospective study we analysed the risk of developing hip displacement within five years of the first pelvic radiograph. All children with CP in southern and western Sweden are invited to register in the hip surveillance programme CPUP. Inclusion criteria for the two groups in this study were children from the CPUP database born between 1994 and 2009 with Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) III to V. Group 1 included children who developed hip displacement, group 2 included children who did not develop hip displacement over a minimum follow-up of five years. A total of 145 children were included with a mean age at their initial pelvic radiograph of 3.5 years (0.6 to 9.7). The odds ratio for hip displacement was calculated for GMFCS-level, age and initial MP and head-shaft angle. A risk score was constructed with these variables using multiple logistic regression analysis. The predictive ability of the risk score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All variables had a significant effect on the risk of a MP > 40%. The discriminatory accuracy of the CPUP hip score is high (AUC = 0.87), indicating a high ability to differentiate between high- and low-risk individuals for hip displacement. The CPUP hip score may be useful in deciding on further follow-up and treatment in children with CP. ©2015 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.