The number of cardiovascular surgeries in Japan may decrease after 2020.

The expected future number of cardiovascular operations is estimated based on the predicted Japanese population and the rate of cardiovascular surgery performance calculated from 16845 cases treated by the Nagoya University group of hospitals between 2001 and 2013. The population of <20-year-old individuals has decreased since 1990, while that of 20-64-year-old individuals has also decreased since 2000. The population of 65-79-year-old individuals is expected to peak in 2020, with only the population of ≥80-year-old individuals expected to increase until 2040. The performance rate of cardiovascular surgery per 100,000 population is low in the 20-64-year-old group and increases to reach a peak in the elderly population of 70-74-year-old individuals in valvular heart disease (55.5), ischemic heart disease (54.5) and thoracic aortic aneurysm (31.9) and decreases to about half those values in the ≥80-year-old age group. The number of cardiovascular operations (all types) per 100,000 was 40.6 in 2002, 42.1 in 2006 and 46.6 in 2010. The total number of expected cardiovascular operations is increasing slightly and will reach a peak in 2020 with an estimated 61,506 operations. It then decreases gradually to reach 55966 in 2035, on the premise that the cardiovascular surgery performance rate does not change from the present time. In order to maintain and expand to meet the medical needs of cardiovascular surgery, it is crucial that an effort be made to increase the cardiovascular surgery performance rate, especially in octogenarian patients.