Variability in Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicle Emission Factors from Trip-Based Real-World Measurements.

Using data obtained with portable emissions measurements systems (PEMS) on multiple routes for 100 gasoline vehicles, including passenger cars (PCs), passenger trucks (PTs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), variability in tailpipe emission rates was evaluated. Tier 2 emission standards are shown to be effective in lowering NOx, CO, and HC emission rates. Although PTs are larger, heavier vehicles that consume more fuel and produce more CO2 emissions, they do not necessarily produce more emissions of regulated pollutants compared to PCs. HEVs have very low emission rates compared to tier 2 vehicles under real-world driving. Emission factors vary with cycle average speed and road type, reflecting the combined impact of traffic control and traffic congestion. Compared to the slowest average speed and most congested cycles, optimal emission rates could be 50% lower for CO2, as much as 70% lower for NOx, 40% lower for CO, and 50% lower for HC. There is very high correlation among vehicles when comparing driving cycles. This has implications for how many cycles are needed to conduct comparisons between vehicles, such as when comparing fuels or technologies. Concordance between empirical and predicted emission rates using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES model was also assessed.