J Jacob1, Ò Miró2, P Herrero3, F J Martín-Sánchez4, V Gil2, J Tost5, A Aguirre6, R Escoda2, A Alquézar7, J A Andueza8, P Llorens9. 1. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, España. Electronic address: jjacob@bellvitgehospital.cat. 2. Grupo de investigación Urgencias: Procesos y Patologías, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Área de Urgencias, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, España. 3. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Asturias, España. 4. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Clínico San Carlos, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital Clínico San Carlos (IdISSC), Madrid, España. 5. Servicio de Urgencias, Consorci Sanitari de Terrassa, Terrassa, Barcelona, España. 6. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital del Mar, Barcelona, España. 7. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, España. 8. Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España. 9. Unidad de Corta Estancia y Unidad de Hospitalización a Domicilio, Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital General de Alicante, Alicante, España.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Prognostic scales are needed in acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure to detect early mortality. The objective of this study is to create a prognostic scale (scale EAHFE-3D) to stratify the risk of death the very short term. PATIENTS AND METHOD: We used the EAHFE database, a multipurpose, multicenter registry with prospective follow-up currently including 6,597 patients with acute heart failure attended at 34 Spanish Emergency Departments from 2007 to 2014. The following variables were collected: demographic, personal history, data of acute episode and 3-day mortality. The derivation cohort included patients recruited during 2009 and 2011 EAHFE registry spots (n=3,640). The classifying variable was all-cause 3-day mortality. A prognostic scale (3D-EAHFE scale) with the results of the multivariate analysis based on the weight of the OR was created. The 3D-EAHFE scale was validated using the cohort of patients included in 2014 spot (n=2,957). RESULTS: A total of 3,640 patients were used in the derivation cohort and 102 (2.8%) died at 3 days. The final scale contained the following variables (maximum 165 points): age≥75 years (30 points), baseline NYHA III-IV (15 points), systolic blood pressure<110mmHg (20 points), room-air oxygen saturation<90% (30 points), hyponatremia (20 points), inotropic or vasopressor treatment (30 points) and need for noninvasive mechanical ventilation (20 points); with a ROC curve of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84; P<.001). The validation cohort included 2,957 patients (66 died at 3 days, 2.2%), and the scale obtained a ROC curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.82; P<.001). The risk groups consisted of very low risk (0-20 points), low risk (21-40 points), intermediate risk (41-60 points), high risk (61-80 points) and very high risk (>80 points), with a mortality (derivation/validation cohorts) of 0/0.5, 0.8/1.0, 2.9/2.8, 5.5/5.8 and 12.7/22.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EAHFE-3D scale may help to predict the very short term prognosis of patients with acute heart failure in 5 risk groups.
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Prognostic scales are needed in acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure to detect early mortality. The objective of this study is to create a prognostic scale (scale EAHFE-3D) to stratify the risk of death the very short term. PATIENTS AND METHOD: We used the EAHFE database, a multipurpose, multicenter registry with prospective follow-up currently including 6,597 patients with acute heart failure attended at 34 Spanish Emergency Departments from 2007 to 2014. The following variables were collected: demographic, personal history, data of acute episode and 3-day mortality. The derivation cohort included patients recruited during 2009 and 2011 EAHFE registry spots (n=3,640). The classifying variable was all-cause 3-day mortality. A prognostic scale (3D-EAHFE scale) with the results of the multivariate analysis based on the weight of the OR was created. The 3D-EAHFE scale was validated using the cohort of patients included in 2014 spot (n=2,957). RESULTS: A total of 3,640 patients were used in the derivation cohort and 102 (2.8%) died at 3 days. The final scale contained the following variables (maximum 165 points): age≥75 years (30 points), baseline NYHA III-IV (15 points), systolic blood pressure<110mmHg (20 points), room-air oxygen saturation<90% (30 points), hyponatremia (20 points), inotropic or vasopressor treatment (30 points) and need for noninvasive mechanical ventilation (20 points); with a ROC curve of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84; P<.001). The validation cohort included 2,957 patients (66 died at 3 days, 2.2%), and the scale obtained a ROC curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.82; P<.001). The risk groups consisted of very low risk (0-20 points), low risk (21-40 points), intermediate risk (41-60 points), high risk (61-80 points) and very high risk (>80 points), with a mortality (derivation/validation cohorts) of 0/0.5, 0.8/1.0, 2.9/2.8, 5.5/5.8 and 12.7/22.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EAHFE-3D scale may help to predict the very short term prognosis of patients with acute heart failure in 5 risk groups.
Authors: Òscar Miró; Xavier Rossello; Elke Platz; Josep Masip; Danielle M Gualandro; W Frank Peacock; Susanna Price; Louise Cullen; Salvatore DiSomma; Mucio Tavares de Oliveira; John Jv McMurray; Francisco J Martín-Sánchez; Alan S Maisel; Christiaan Vrints; Martin R Cowie; Héctor Bueno; Alexandre Mebazaa; Christian Mueller Journal: Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care Date: 2020-08