L Perez1, S Trüeb2, H Cowie3, M P Keuken4, P Mudu5, M S Ragettli6, D A Sarigiannis7, M Tobollik8, J Tuomisto9, D Vienneau10, C Sabel11, N Künzli10. 1. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: l.perez@unibas.ch. 2. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Lufthygieneamt beider Basel, Departement für Wirtschaft, Soziales und Umwelt Basel-Stadt, Germany. 3. Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, United Kingdom. 4. TNO, Netherlands Organization for Applied Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands. 5. WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany. 6. Université de Montréal, Département de santé environnementale et santé au travail, École de santé publique, Canada. 7. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Thessaloniki, Greece; Centre for Research and Technology Hellas, Chemical Process and Energy Resources Institute, Thermi, Greece. 8. Bielefeld University, School of Public Health, Department 7 Environment & Health, Bielefeld, Germany; Federal Environment Agency (UBA), Section for Exposure Assessment and Health Indicators, Germany. 9. Department of Environmental Health, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Kuopio, Finland. 10. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. 11. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, United Kingdom.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. OBJECTIVE: To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. METHODS: We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. RESULTS: Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. CONCLUSION: The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.
BACKGROUND: Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. OBJECTIVE: To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. METHODS: We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. RESULTS: Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. CONCLUSION: The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.
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