Brian H H Lang1, Carlos K H Wong2, Hyeong Won Yu3, Kyu Eun Lee3. 1. Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. 2. Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, 3/F Ap Lei Chau Clinic, Hong Kong, China. 3. Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A nomogram could provide individualized prognostic for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The purpose of our study was to develop and validate a new nomogram. METHODS: Consecutive patients with PTC from 2 different institutions were analyzed and divided into the development (n = 849) and validation (n = 275) sets. The former was used for formulating a nomogram in predicting disease-specific death and recurrence, whereas the latter was for validation (by area under the curve [AUC]). RESULTS: The nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence (0.984; 0.969-0.998; and 0.743; 0.658-0.828; respectively). A score <30 meant 100% of the patients survived at 10 years and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. A score <17 meant almost all the patients (91.04%) were disease-free within 10 years. CONCLUSION: Using a competing-risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for PTC. Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations.
BACKGROUND: A nomogram could provide individualized prognostic for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The purpose of our study was to develop and validate a new nomogram. METHODS: Consecutive patients with PTC from 2 different institutions were analyzed and divided into the development (n = 849) and validation (n = 275) sets. The former was used for formulating a nomogram in predicting disease-specific death and recurrence, whereas the latter was for validation (by area under the curve [AUC]). RESULTS: The nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence (0.984; 0.969-0.998; and 0.743; 0.658-0.828; respectively). A score <30 meant 100% of the patients survived at 10 years and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. A score <17 meant almost all the patients (91.04%) were disease-free within 10 years. CONCLUSION: Using a competing-risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for PTC. Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations.