An ecological analysis of pertussis disease in Minnesota, 2009-2013.

The increase in pertussis cases in Minnesota in the last decade has been mainly attributed to the switch from whole cell to acellular pertussis [as part of the diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP)]. It is unclear, however, to what degree community-level risk factors also contribute. Understanding these factors can help inform public health policy-makers about where else to target resources. We performed an ecological analysis within Minnesota to identify risk factors at the county level using a Bayesian Poisson generalized linear areal model to account for spatial dependence. Univariate analyses suggested an association between increased pertussis rates at the county level and white maternal ethnicity, being US born, urban counties and average household size. In the multivariable analysis, the rate of pertussis was 1·79 times greater for urban vs. rural counties and 4·75 times greater for counties with a one-person larger average household size. Pertussis rates in counties with higher (i.e. 4+DTaP) receipt in children were 0·97 times lower. Examining county-level factors associated with varying levels of pertussis may help identify those counties that would most benefit from targeted interventions and increased resource allocation.