Dominic Thorrington1, Mark Jit2, Ken Eames3. 1. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: dominic.thorrington@lshtm.ac.uk. 2. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, London, UK. 3. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The UK commenced an extension to the seasonal influenza vaccination policy in autumn 2014 that will eventually see all healthy children between the ages of 2-16 years offered annual influenza vaccination. Models suggest that the new policy will be both highly effective at reducing the burden of influenza as well as cost-effective. We explore whether targeting vaccination at either primary or secondary schools would be more effective and/or cost-effective than the current strategy. METHODS: An age-structured deterministic transmission dynamic SEIR-type mathematical model was used to simulate a national influenza outbreak in England. Costs including GP consultations, hospitalisations due to influenza and vaccinations were compared to potential gains in quality-adjusted life years achieved through vaccinating healthy children. Costs and benefits of the new JCVI vaccination policy were estimated over a single season, and compared to the hypothesised new policies of targeted and heterogeneous vaccination. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: All potential vaccination policies were highly cost-effective. Influenza transmission can be eliminated for a particular season by vaccinating both primary and secondary school children, but not by vaccinating only one group. The most cost-effective policy overall is heterogeneous vaccination coverage with 48% uptake in primary schools and 34% in secondary schools. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation can consider a modification to their policy of offering seasonal influenza vaccinations to all healthy children of ages 2-16 years.
BACKGROUND: The UK commenced an extension to the seasonal influenza vaccination policy in autumn 2014 that will eventually see all healthy children between the ages of 2-16 years offered annual influenza vaccination. Models suggest that the new policy will be both highly effective at reducing the burden of influenza as well as cost-effective. We explore whether targeting vaccination at either primary or secondary schools would be more effective and/or cost-effective than the current strategy. METHODS: An age-structured deterministic transmission dynamic SEIR-type mathematical model was used to simulate a national influenza outbreak in England. Costs including GP consultations, hospitalisations due to influenza and vaccinations were compared to potential gains in quality-adjusted life years achieved through vaccinating healthy children. Costs and benefits of the new JCVI vaccination policy were estimated over a single season, and compared to the hypothesised new policies of targeted and heterogeneous vaccination. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: All potential vaccination policies were highly cost-effective. Influenza transmission can be eliminated for a particular season by vaccinating both primary and secondary school children, but not by vaccinating only one group. The most cost-effective policy overall is heterogeneous vaccination coverage with 48% uptake in primary schools and 34% in secondary schools. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation can consider a modification to their policy of offering seasonal influenza vaccinations to all healthy children of ages 2-16 years.
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