Paul A Heidenreich1, Vivian Tsai2, Jeptha Curtis3, Yongfei Wang3, Mintu P Turakhia4, Frederick A Masoudi5, Paul D Varosy5, Mary K Goldstein4. 1. VA Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, CA, 94304. Electronic address: heiden@stanford.edu. 2. Palo Alto Medical Foundation, Palo Alto, CA. 3. Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT. 4. VA Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, CA, 94304. 5. Department of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine survival for patients with heart failure after an implantation of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention in the United States and to develop a simple model that would predict mortality risk. BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have found that patients with heart failure with a 1-year mortality risk near 20% may not benefit from an ICD. METHODS: We identified patients from the ICD Registry of the National Cardiovascular Disease Registries who underwent ICD implantation for primary prevention from 2007 to 2009. Two risk scores for mortality were developed in 2 cohorts: one limited to those with a B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) value and a second for all patients. The scores were obtained from derivation datasets and tested in a validation sets using logistic regression models and classification and regression trees. RESULTS: In a primary prevention population with BNP available (18,725) the 6 variables most predictive of 1-year mortality were age ≥75, BNP ≥700 pg/mL, chronic lung disease, dialysis, blood urea nitrogen ≥30 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure <120 mmHg. Patients with zero risk factors had a 3.3% one-year mortality compared to a 66.7% one-year mortality for those with all 6 risk factors. Those with ≥3 risk factors (24.0% of the population) had a 25.8% one-year mortality. A second score using a larger cohort that did not consider BNP identified similar risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: A simple validated risk score can identify patients at high and low risk for death within a year after ICD placement. A large fraction of those currently implanted with an ICD in the United States have a high 1-year mortality and may not benefit from ICD therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine survival for patients with heart failure after an implantation of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention in the United States and to develop a simple model that would predict mortality risk. BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have found that patients with heart failure with a 1-year mortality risk near 20% may not benefit from an ICD. METHODS: We identified patients from the ICD Registry of the National Cardiovascular Disease Registries who underwent ICD implantation for primary prevention from 2007 to 2009. Two risk scores for mortality were developed in 2 cohorts: one limited to those with a B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) value and a second for all patients. The scores were obtained from derivation datasets and tested in a validation sets using logistic regression models and classification and regression trees. RESULTS: In a primary prevention population with BNP available (18,725) the 6 variables most predictive of 1-year mortality were age ≥75, BNP ≥700 pg/mL, chronic lung disease, dialysis, blood ureanitrogen ≥30 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure <120 mmHg. Patients with zero risk factors had a 3.3% one-year mortality compared to a 66.7% one-year mortality for those with all 6 risk factors. Those with ≥3 risk factors (24.0% of the population) had a 25.8% one-year mortality. A second score using a larger cohort that did not consider BNP identified similar risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: A simple validated risk score can identify patients at high and low risk for death within a year after ICD placement. A large fraction of those currently implanted with an ICD in the United States have a high 1-year mortality and may not benefit from ICD therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Authors: Emelia J Benjamin; Michael J Blaha; Stephanie E Chiuve; Mary Cushman; Sandeep R Das; Rajat Deo; Sarah D de Ferranti; James Floyd; Myriam Fornage; Cathleen Gillespie; Carmen R Isasi; Monik C Jiménez; Lori Chaffin Jordan; Suzanne E Judd; Daniel Lackland; Judith H Lichtman; Lynda Lisabeth; Simin Liu; Chris T Longenecker; Rachel H Mackey; Kunihiro Matsushita; Dariush Mozaffarian; Michael E Mussolino; Khurram Nasir; Robert W Neumar; Latha Palaniappan; Dilip K Pandey; Ravi R Thiagarajan; Mathew J Reeves; Matthew Ritchey; Carlos J Rodriguez; Gregory A Roth; Wayne D Rosamond; Comilla Sasson; Amytis Towfighi; Connie W Tsao; Melanie B Turner; Salim S Virani; Jenifer H Voeks; Joshua Z Willey; John T Wilkins; Jason Hy Wu; Heather M Alger; Sally S Wong; Paul Muntner Journal: Circulation Date: 2017-01-25 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Leonard Bergau; Tobias Tichelbäcker; Barbora Kessel; Lars Lüthje; Thomas H Fischer; Tim Friede; Markus Zabel Journal: PLoS One Date: 2017-10-17 Impact factor: 3.240