Kevin D Cashman1, Andreas Kazantzidis2, Ann R Webb3, Mairead Kiely4. 1. Vitamin D Research Group, School of Food and Nutritional Science, and Department of Medicine, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; k.cashman@ucc.ie. 2. School of Earth Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Physics Department, University of Patras, Patras, Greece. 3. School of Earth Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and. 4. Vitamin D Research Group, School of Food and Nutritional Science, and.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To enable food-based strategies for the prevention of vitamin D deficiency to be evidence-based, there is a need to develop integrated predictive models of population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] that are responsive to both solar and dietary inputs of vitamin D. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this work were to develop and validate an integrated mathematical model with the use of data on UVB availability, exposure, and dietary intake to predict serum 25(OH)D concentrations in a nationally representative sample of adults, and then test the model's performance with the use of 3 hypothetical fortification scenarios as exemplars. METHODS: Data on UVB availability and hours of sunlight in Ireland were used in a mathematical model to predict serum 25(OH)D in Irish adults aged 18-64 y. An equation from our dose-related vitamin D supplementation trial in adults was developed and integrated into the model, which allowed us to predict the impact of changes in dietary vitamin D on the contribution to annual serum 25(OH)D concentrations, accounting for seasonality of UVB availability. Recently published estimates of the impact of 3 vitamin D food fortification scenarios on vitamin D intake in a representative sample of Irish adults were used in the model as a test. RESULTS: The UVB- and vitamin D intake-serum 25(OH)D components of the integrated model were both validated with the use of independent data. The model predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] in the adult population during an extended winter period was 18.1% (vs. 18.6% measured), which could be reduced in a stepwise manner with the incorporation of an increased number of vitamin D-fortified foods, down to 6.6% with the inclusion of enhanced fortified dairy-related products, fat spreads, fruit juice and drinks, and cereal products. CONCLUSION: Mathematical models have the ability to inform how vitamin D food fortification in various constructs may affect population serum 25(OH)D concentrations and the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.
BACKGROUND: To enable food-based strategies for the prevention of vitamin D deficiency to be evidence-based, there is a need to develop integrated predictive models of population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] that are responsive to both solar and dietary inputs of vitamin D. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this work were to develop and validate an integrated mathematical model with the use of data on UVB availability, exposure, and dietary intake to predict serum 25(OH)D concentrations in a nationally representative sample of adults, and then test the model's performance with the use of 3 hypothetical fortification scenarios as exemplars. METHODS: Data on UVB availability and hours of sunlight in Ireland were used in a mathematical model to predict serum 25(OH)D in Irish adults aged 18-64 y. An equation from our dose-related vitamin D supplementation trial in adults was developed and integrated into the model, which allowed us to predict the impact of changes in dietary vitamin D on the contribution to annual serum 25(OH)D concentrations, accounting for seasonality of UVB availability. Recently published estimates of the impact of 3 vitamin D food fortification scenarios on vitamin D intake in a representative sample of Irish adults were used in the model as a test. RESULTS: The UVB- and vitamin D intake-serum 25(OH)D components of the integrated model were both validated with the use of independent data. The model predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] in the adult population during an extended winter period was 18.1% (vs. 18.6% measured), which could be reduced in a stepwise manner with the incorporation of an increased number of vitamin D-fortified foods, down to 6.6% with the inclusion of enhanced fortified dairy-related products, fat spreads, fruit juice and drinks, and cereal products. CONCLUSION: Mathematical models have the ability to inform how vitamin D food fortification in various constructs may affect population serum 25(OH)D concentrations and the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.
Authors: Kevin D Cashman; Ellen Ghm van den Heuvel; Ruud Jw Schoemaker; Damien P Prévéraud; Helen M Macdonald; Jayashree Arcot Journal: Adv Nutr Date: 2017-11-15 Impact factor: 8.701
Authors: Colette M O'Neill; Andreas Kazantzidis; Mary J Ryan; Niamh Barber; Christopher T Sempos; Ramon A Durazo-Arvizu; Rolf Jorde; Guri Grimnes; Gudny Eiriksdottir; Vilmundur Gudnason; Mary Frances Cotch; Mairead Kiely; Ann R Webb; Kevin D Cashman Journal: Nutrients Date: 2016-08-30 Impact factor: 5.717
Authors: Stefan Pilz; Winfried März; Kevin D Cashman; Mairead E Kiely; Susan J Whiting; Michael F Holick; William B Grant; Pawel Pludowski; Mickael Hiligsmann; Christian Trummer; Verena Schwetz; Elisabeth Lerchbaum; Marlene Pandis; Andreas Tomaschitz; Martin R Grübler; Martin Gaksch; Nicolas Verheyen; Bruce W Hollis; Lars Rejnmark; Spyridon N Karras; Andreas Hahn; Heike A Bischoff-Ferrari; Jörg Reichrath; Rolf Jorde; Ibrahim Elmadfa; Reinhold Vieth; Robert Scragg; Mona S Calvo; Natasja M van Schoor; Roger Bouillon; Paul Lips; Suvi T Itkonen; Adrian R Martineau; Christel Lamberg-Allardt; Armin Zittermann Journal: Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Date: 2018-07-17 Impact factor: 5.555
Authors: Ann R Webb; Andreas Kazantzidis; Richard C Kift; Mark D Farrar; Jack Wilkinson; Lesley E Rhodes Journal: Nutrients Date: 2018-04-07 Impact factor: 5.717