G Pagani1, V Stagnati1, A Fichera1, F Prefumo1. 1. Maternal-Fetal Medicine Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Spedali Civili and University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Short cervical length (CL) in mid-gestation is considered predictive of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). The medical literature suggests 20 mm as the cut-off for high risk in twin pregnancies. Our objective was to assess the predictive value of CL for spontaneous PTB < 32 weeks' gestation in twin pregnancies and to calculate the cut-off point with the best sensitivity and specificity. METHODS: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of women in whom CL had been measured by transvaginal ultrasound at 18-23 weeks' gestation. Pregnancies complicated by twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome, those requiring intrauterine therapy or those with indicated PTB were excluded. The predictive value of CL for PTB < 32 weeks was assessed. The distribution of CL measurements and the optimal cut-off in patients with PTB were calculated and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between pregnancy characteristics and PTB. RESULTS: A total of 940 twin pregnancies were included. CL showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.71) for the prediction of PTB < 32 weeks. The optimal cut-off value for predicting PTB was 36 mm (sensitivity, 64.1%; specificity, 62.8%; positive predictive value, 13.5%; negative predictive value, 95.1%; accuracy, 62.9%). The relative risk of PTB with CL ≤ 36 mm was 2.35 (95% CI, 1.53-3.60; P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounders in logistic regression analysis, only CL (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99); P = 0.03), and not monochorionicity (aOR 4.14 (95% CI, 0.89-19.25); P = 0.07), was independently associated with PTB. More than one-third (36%) of PTB cases delivering < 32 weeks had a normal CL in mid-gestation. This proportion rose to 85% when considering the 20-mm cut-off suggested by the medical literature. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that, despite the weak independent association, CL assessed in mid-gestation is a poor predictor of PTB < 32 weeks' gestation in asymptomatic twin pregnancies.
OBJECTIVE: Short cervical length (CL) in mid-gestation is considered predictive of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). The medical literature suggests 20 mm as the cut-off for high risk in twin pregnancies. Our objective was to assess the predictive value of CL for spontaneous PTB < 32 weeks' gestation in twin pregnancies and to calculate the cut-off point with the best sensitivity and specificity. METHODS: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of women in whom CL had been measured by transvaginal ultrasound at 18-23 weeks' gestation. Pregnancies complicated by twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome, those requiring intrauterine therapy or those with indicated PTB were excluded. The predictive value of CL for PTB < 32 weeks was assessed. The distribution of CL measurements and the optimal cut-off in patients with PTB were calculated and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between pregnancy characteristics and PTB. RESULTS: A total of 940 twin pregnancies were included. CL showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.71) for the prediction of PTB < 32 weeks. The optimal cut-off value for predicting PTB was 36 mm (sensitivity, 64.1%; specificity, 62.8%; positive predictive value, 13.5%; negative predictive value, 95.1%; accuracy, 62.9%). The relative risk of PTB with CL ≤ 36 mm was 2.35 (95% CI, 1.53-3.60; P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounders in logistic regression analysis, only CL (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99); P = 0.03), and not monochorionicity (aOR 4.14 (95% CI, 0.89-19.25); P = 0.07), was independently associated with PTB. More than one-third (36%) of PTB cases delivering < 32 weeks had a normal CL in mid-gestation. This proportion rose to 85% when considering the 20-mm cut-off suggested by the medical literature. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that, despite the weak independent association, CL assessed in mid-gestation is a poor predictor of PTB < 32 weeks' gestation in asymptomatic twin pregnancies.
Authors: Agustin Conde-Agudelo; Roberto Romero; Eduardo Da Fonseca; John M O'Brien; Elcin Cetingoz; George W Creasy; Sonia S Hassan; Offer Erez; Percy Pacora; Kypros H Nicolaides Journal: Am J Obstet Gynecol Date: 2018-04-07 Impact factor: 8.661
Authors: R Romero; A Conde-Agudelo; W El-Refaie; L Rode; M L Brizot; E Cetingoz; V Serra; E Da Fonseca; M S Abdelhafez; A Tabor; A Perales; S S Hassan; K H Nicolaides Journal: Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol Date: 2017-03 Impact factor: 7.299