The potential impact of an inter-basin water transfer project on nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and chlorophyll a of the receiving water system.

Any inter-basin water transfer project would cause complex physical, chemical, hydrological and biological changes to the receiving system. The primary channel of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has a total length of 1267 km. There is a significant difference between the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the originating and receiving drinking water conservation districts. To predict the impacts of this long-distance inter-basin water transfer project on the N&P (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations and eutrophication risk of the receiving system, an environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model was applied. The calibrated model accurately reproduced the hydrodynamic, water quality and the entire algal bloom process. Thirteen scenarios were defined to fully understand the N&P and chlorophyll a (Chl a) variation among different hydrological years, different quantity and timing of water transfer, and different inflows of N&P concentrations. The results showed the following: (a) The water transfer project would not result in a substantial difference to the trophic state of the Miyun reservoir in any of the hydrological years. (b) The area affected by the water transfer did not involve the entire reservoir. To minimize the impact of water transfer on N&P nutrients and Chl a, water should be transferred as uniform as possible with small discharge. (c) The variation in Chl a was more sensitive to an increase in P than an increase in N for the transferred water. The increased percentages of the average Chl a concentration when water was transferred in the spring, summer and autumn were 7.76%, 16.67% and 16.45%. Our findings imply that special attention should be given to prevent P increment of the transferred water from May to October to prevent algal blooms. The results provide useful information for decision makers about the quantity and timing of water transfers.