"Bare Branches" and the Marriage Market in Rural China: Preliminary Evidence from a village-level survey.

Using data from a village survey in rural China, this study explores the relationships between current prevalence of involuntary bachelorhood and its causes and social consequences at the village level. We find that bachelors, inter-county marriage and marriage fraud exist in all regions, and are expected to become more frequent with the increasing surplus of males born after 1980 entering the marriage market. The marriage squeeze and social problems related to the bachelors are more serious in less-developed western villages, and heterogeneity within central villages is significant. Economic and socio-demographic factors are shown to be the major causes of the prevalence of bachelors at the village level in contemporary rural China. Our findings confirm the negative consequences of the marriage squeeze, and effective policies are urgently needed to respond to and prevent more negative consequences of gender imbalance in the foreseeable future.