Could the presence of larger fractions of non-cyanobacterial species be used as a predictor of microcystin production under variable nutrient regimes?

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystin is highly dynamic in natural environments and poses one of the biggest challenges to water resource management. While a number of drivers are known to be responsible for the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms, the drivers of microcystin production are not adequately known. This study aims to quantify the effects of the changes in the structures of phytoplankton and cyanobacterial communities on the dynamics of microcystin production under highly variable nutrient concentration. In our study, nutrient variability could explain 64% of the variability in microcystin production. When changes in the fractions of non-cyanobacteria versus cyanobacteria genera were additionally included, 80% of the variability in microcystin production could be explained; under high nutrient concentrations, non-cyanobacterial phytoplankton groups were dominant over cyanobacteria and cyanobacteria produced more toxins. In contrast, changes in the cyanobacterial community structures could only explain a further 4% of the dynamics of microcystin production. As such, the dominance of non-cyanobacterial groups appears to be a useful factor to explain microcystin occurrence in addition to traditionally used factors such as absolute cyanobacterial cell numbers, especially when the nutrient regime is taken into account. This information could help to further refine the risk assessment frameworks which are currently used to manage the risk posed by cyanobacterial blooms.