Barak Zafrir1, Mohanad Azaiza2, Tamar Gaspar3, Idit Dobrecky-Mery2, Mali Azencot3, Basil S Lewis2, Ronen Rubinshtein2, David A Halon2. 1. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center and The Ruth and Bruce Rappaport School of Medicine, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel. Electronic address: barakzmd@gmail.com. 2. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center and The Ruth and Bruce Rappaport School of Medicine, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel. 3. Department of Radiology, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center, Israel.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite its well-established prognostic value, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is not incorporated routinely in risk assessment tools. Whether low CRF provides additional predictive information in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics beyond conventional risk scores and coronary artery calcification (CAC) is unclear. METHODS: We studied 600 type 2 diabetics aged 55-74 years without known coronary heart disease. CRF was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs) by maximal treadmill testing and categorized as tertiles of percent predicted METs (ppMETs) achieved. CAC was calculated by non-enhanced computed tomography scans. The individual and joint association of both measures with an outcome event of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, was determined over a mean follow-up period of 80 ± 16 months. RESULTS: There were 72 (12%) events during follow-up. Low CRF was independently associated with event risk after adjustment for traditional risk factors and CAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.41-3.57, p = 0.001). CRF (unfit/fit) allowed further outcome discrimination both amongst diabetics with low CAC scores (9.5% versus 2.0% event rate), and amongst diabetics with high CAC scores (23.5% versus 12.4% event rate), p < 0.001. The addition of CRF to a model comprising UKPDS and CAC scores improved the area under the curve for event prediction from 0.66 to 0.71, p = 0.03, with a positive continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.451, p = 0.002. CONCLUSIONS: CRF, quantified by ppMETs, provided independent prognostic information which was additive to CAC. Low CRF may identify asymptomatic diabetic subjects at higher risk for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, despite low CAC.
BACKGROUND: Despite its well-established prognostic value, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is not incorporated routinely in risk assessment tools. Whether low CRF provides additional predictive information in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics beyond conventional risk scores and coronary artery calcification (CAC) is unclear. METHODS: We studied 600 type 2 diabetics aged 55-74 years without known coronary heart disease. CRF was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs) by maximal treadmill testing and categorized as tertiles of percent predicted METs (ppMETs) achieved. CAC was calculated by non-enhanced computed tomography scans. The individual and joint association of both measures with an outcome event of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, was determined over a mean follow-up period of 80 ± 16 months. RESULTS: There were 72 (12%) events during follow-up. Low CRF was independently associated with event risk after adjustment for traditional risk factors and CAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.41-3.57, p = 0.001). CRF (unfit/fit) allowed further outcome discrimination both amongst diabetics with low CAC scores (9.5% versus 2.0% event rate), and amongst diabetics with high CAC scores (23.5% versus 12.4% event rate), p < 0.001. The addition of CRF to a model comprising UKPDS and CAC scores improved the area under the curve for event prediction from 0.66 to 0.71, p = 0.03, with a positive continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.451, p = 0.002. CONCLUSIONS: CRF, quantified by ppMETs, provided independent prognostic information which was additive to CAC. Low CRF may identify asymptomatic diabetic subjects at higher risk for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, despite low CAC.
Authors: Alan Rozanski; Yoav Arnson; Heidi Gransar; Sean W Hayes; John D Friedman; Louise E J Thomson; Damini Dey; Daniel S Berman Journal: Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes Date: 2020-06-05