Time-scale dependency of host plant biomass- and trait-mediated indirect effects of deer herbivory on a swallowtail butterfly.

Despite recent attempts to quantify the relative strength of density- and trait-mediated indirect effects, rarely has the issue been properly addressed at the population level. Most research is based on short-term small-scale experiments in which behavioural and/or physiological responses prevail. Here, we estimated the time-scales during which density- and trait-mediated effects manifest, as well as the strength of these effects, using an interaction chain with three organisms (deer-plant-butterfly). A hierarchical Bayesian model was performed by using a long-term data set of deer density in the Boso Peninsula, central Japan (where local densities differ spatially and temporally) as well as densities of the swallowtail butterfly Byasa alcinous and its host plant Aristolochia kaempferi. The time-scale effect of deer on plant quantity and quality was estimated according to the degree of carry-over effects. The negative influence on leaf density showed a temporal saturation pattern over the long term, while the positive influence on leaf quality due to resprouting of leaves after deer browsing showed no clear temporal trend. The net indirect effect changed from positive to negative with time, with the negative density-mediated effect becoming prominent in the long term. Our novel approach is widely applicable in assessing the dynamic impacts of wildlife if the spatio-temporal variability of expansion and/or invasion history is known.