Ekkehard C Beck1, Michelle Birkett, Benjamin Armbruster, Brian Mustanski. 1. *Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering, Evanston, IL; and †Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States have a high HIV incidence with substantial racial disparities that are poorly understood. We use a data-driven simulation model to understand the impact of network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections on the spread of HIV among YMSM. METHODS: We designed and parameterized a stochastic agent-based network simulation model using results of a longitudinal cohort study of YMSM in Chicago. Within this model, YMSM formed and dissolved partnerships over time, and partnership types were stratified by length of partnership, sex, and age of the partner. In each partnership, HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia could be transmitted. Counterfactual scenarios were run to examine drivers of HIV. RESULTS: Over a 15-year simulation, the HIV epidemic among YMSM continued to rise, with Latino/white YMSM facing a steeper increase in the HIV burden compared with black YMSM. YMSM in partnerships with older MSM, in particular black YMSM with older black MSM, were at highest risk for HIV, and 1 infection prevented with an older partner would prevent 0.8 additional infections among YMSM. Additionally, racial disparities in HIV were driven by differences in the HIV prevalence of YMSM partners. Finally, of all HIV infections among YMSM, 14.6% were attributable to NG and CT infections. CONCLUSION: Network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections play a significant role in the spread of HIV and in racial disparities among YMSM. HIV prevention efforts should target YMSM across race, and interventions focusing on YMSM partnerships with older MSM might be highly effective.
OBJECTIVE: Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States have a high HIV incidence with substantial racial disparities that are poorly understood. We use a data-driven simulation model to understand the impact of network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections on the spread of HIV among YMSM. METHODS: We designed and parameterized a stochastic agent-based network simulation model using results of a longitudinal cohort study of YMSM in Chicago. Within this model, YMSM formed and dissolved partnerships over time, and partnership types were stratified by length of partnership, sex, and age of the partner. In each partnership, HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia could be transmitted. Counterfactual scenarios were run to examine drivers of HIV. RESULTS: Over a 15-year simulation, the HIV epidemic among YMSM continued to rise, with Latino/white YMSM facing a steeper increase in the HIV burden compared with black YMSM. YMSM in partnerships with older MSM, in particular black YMSM with older black MSM, were at highest risk for HIV, and 1 infection prevented with an older partner would prevent 0.8 additional infections among YMSM. Additionally, racial disparities in HIV were driven by differences in the HIV prevalence of YMSM partners. Finally, of all HIV infections among YMSM, 14.6% were attributable to NG and CT infections. CONCLUSION: Network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections play a significant role in the spread of HIV and in racial disparities among YMSM. HIV prevention efforts should target YMSM across race, and interventions focusing on YMSM partnerships with older MSM might be highly effective.
Authors: M Bissessor; S N Tabrizi; C K Fairley; J Danielewski; B Whitton; S Bird; S Garland; M Y Chen Journal: J Clin Microbiol Date: 2011-09-28 Impact factor: 5.948
Authors: Alexandra M Oster; Ryan E Wiegand; Catlainn Sionean; Isa J Miles; Peter E Thomas; Lehida Melendez-Morales; Binh C Le; Gregorio A Millett Journal: AIDS Date: 2011-05-15 Impact factor: 4.177
Authors: Christopher B Hurt; Derrick D Matthews; Molly S Calabria; Kelly A Green; Adaora A Adimora; Carol E Golin; Lisa B Hightow-Weidman Journal: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Date: 2010-06 Impact factor: 3.731
Authors: Amy C Weintrob; Greg A Grandits; Brian K Agan; Anuradha Ganesan; Michael L Landrum; Nancy F Crum-Cianflone; Erica N Johnson; Claudia E Ordóñez; Glenn W Wortmann; Vincent C Marconi Journal: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Date: 2009-12 Impact factor: 3.731
Authors: Henrike J Vriend; Anna K Lugnér; Maria Xiridou; Maarten F Schim van der Loeff; Maria Prins; Henry J C de Vries; Suzanne E Geerlings; Jan M Prins; Bart J A Rijnders; Maaike G van Veen; Johannes S A Fennema; Maarten J Postma; Marianne A B van der Sande Journal: AIDS Date: 2013-09-10 Impact factor: 4.177
Authors: Patrick S Sullivan; John Peterson; Eli S Rosenberg; Colleen F Kelley; Hannah Cooper; Adam Vaughan; Laura F Salazar; Paula Frew; Gina Wingood; Ralph Diclemente; Carlos del Rio; Mark Mulligan; Travis H Sanchez Journal: PLoS One Date: 2014-03-07 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Lao-Tzu Allan-Blitz; M Christina Herrera; Gino M Calvo; Silver K Vargas; Carlos F Caceres; Jeffrey D Klausner; Kelika A Konda Journal: AIDS Behav Date: 2019-04
Authors: Patrick Janulis; Brian A Feinstein; Gregory Phillips; Michael E Newcomb; Michelle Birkett; Brian Mustanski Journal: Arch Sex Behav Date: 2017-02-13
Authors: Brian Mustanski; Brian A Feinstein; Krystal Madkins; Patrick Sullivan; Gregory Swann Journal: Sex Transm Dis Date: 2017-08 Impact factor: 2.830
Authors: Yuko Mizuno; Craig B Borkowf; Sabina Hirshfield; Brian Mustanski; Patrick S Sullivan; Robin J MacGowan Journal: Arch Sex Behav Date: 2019-12-16
Authors: Steven M Goodreau; Eli S Rosenberg; Samuel M Jenness; Nicole Luisi; Sarah E Stansfield; Gregorio A Millett; Patrick S Sullivan Journal: Lancet HIV Date: 2017-04-18 Impact factor: 12.767
Authors: Robert Garofalo; Anna L Hotton; Lisa M Kuhns; Beau Gratzer; Brian Mustanski Journal: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Date: 2016-05-01 Impact factor: 3.731