Time-related changes in characteristics of prognostic significance in carcinomas of the oesophagus and cardia.

During 25 years (1960-84) 657 patients were operated on for squamous cell carcinomas (n = 230), adenocarcinomas (n = 399) or anaplastic carcinomas (n = 28) of the thoracic oesophagus or cardia. The male:female ratio was 2.8:1 and the mean age was 66 years (range 22-91 years). Oesophagogastrectomy (n = 514) was performed whenever technically possible. From the first (1960-64) to the last (1980-84) 5-year period the proportion of adenocarcinomas increased from 56 to 78 per cent (P less than 0.001), poorly differentiated cancers increased from 34 to 65 per cent (P less than 0.0001), and stage III-IV tumours increased from 72 to 88 per cent (P less than 0.05). Five-year cumulative rates(s.e.) were 11(3) per cent for operations during 1960-69 (n = 262), 8(2) per cent during 1970-79 (n = 256) and 3(2) per cent during 1980-84 (n = 139; P less than 0.05). Hospital mortality rates (less than or equal to 30 days) and 5-year cumulative survival rates(s.e.) were 6.5 per cent and 36(7) per cent (n = 46) for stage I, 14.0 per cent and 21(4) per cent (n = 114) for stage II, 17.8 per cent and 5(1) per cent (n = 258) for stage III and 23.8 per cent and 3(1) per cent (n = 239) for stage IV tumours (P less than 0.05 and P less than 0.001). Well differentiated (n = 70) cancers, those of medium differentiation (n = 239) and poorly differentiated cancers (n = 348) had 5-year survival rates(s.e.) of 24(5), 10(2) and 5(1) per cent, respectively (P = 0.0007). Squamous cell carcinomas had a better prognosis than adenocarcinomas, even after stratification according to location of primary tumour. The 657 patients who underwent surgery constituted 50 per cent of a total of 1316 cases with cancer of the oesophagus and cardia reported from our catchment area during the study period. Frequency of surgery decreased with age. The annual incidence (number per 100,000 inhabitants aged 20 years or more) of adenocarcinomas of the lower oesophagus and cardia doubled to 5.9 in 1980-84, while that of squamous cell carcinomas tended to decrease (to 2.9). A successive worsening of long-term survival after surgery was explained by significant changes in cancer characteristics having pronounced prognostic significance. Over the 25 years the carcinomas changed towards the present pattern where poorly differentiated adenocarcinomas of the lower third of the oesophagus and cardia in stages III-IV have become predominant.