Assessing cost and effectiveness of radiation decontamination in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan.

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination in Fukushima Prefecture, it is not clear what levels of reduction in external radiation exposure are possible in the Special Decontamination Area, the Intensive Contamination Survey Areas and the whole of Fukushima. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of radiation decontamination in Fukushima Prefecture in its entirety. Using a geographic information system, we calculated the costs of removal, storage containers, transport, and temporary and interim storage facilities as well as the reduction in air dose rate for a cumulative external exposure for 9000 1 km × 1 km mesh units incorporating 51 municipalities. The decontamination cost for the basic scenario, for which forested areas within 20 m of habitation areas were decontaminated, was JPY2.53-5.12 trillion; the resulting reduction in annual external dose was about 2500 person-Sv. The transport, storage, and administrative costs of decontamination waste and removed soil reached JPY1.55-2.12 trillion under this scenario. Although implementing decontamination of all forested areas provides some major reductions in the external radiation dose for the average inhabitant, decontamination costs could potentially exceed JPY16 trillion. These results indicate that technologies for reducing the volume of decontamination waste and removed soil should be considered to reduce storage costs and that further discussions about forest decontamination policies are needed.