Prognostic value of an exercise test one year after myocardial infarction.

An exercise test was performed in 306 patients who had had acute myocardial infarction one year previously. The five year cumulative coronary heart disease mortality was 40.0%, when the test had to be discontinued because of ventricular arrhythmias but only 13.0% if discontinued because of fatigue (P less than 0.05). If the maximum work load was less than 80 W the mortality was 30.7% compared with 16.6% in patients who exercised at least 80 W (P less than 0.01). If maximum systolic blood pressure was less than or equal to 150 mmHg mortality was 40.3% compared with 8.5% in patients with greater than 200 mgHg (P less than 0.001). The mortality was 38.2% in patients having single monoform ventricular ectopic beats at a rate of three or more per minute or multiform, paired or early cycle ventricular ectopic beats or ventricular tachycardias: this compared with 14.1% (P less than 0.001) in patients having no or only single monoform ventricular ectopic beats at a rate of less than three per minute. ST-segment depression in univariate testing had no prognostic value. When both exercise test and clinical variables were used in survival analysis (Cox's regression) the most important variable was heart volume and after that ventricular arrhythmias. In multivariate regression analysis ST segment depression also had additional prognostic value. Thus ventricular arrhythmias turned out to be the most important prognostic factor measured during exercise test.