Predictors of Payer Mix and Financial Performance Among Safety Net Hospitals Prior to the Affordable Care Act.

The objective of this study was to use audited hospital financial statements to identify predictors of payer mix and financial performance in safety net hospitals prior to the Affordable Care Act. We analyzed the 2010 financial statements of 98 large, urban safety net hospital systems in 34 states, supplemented with data on population demographics, hospital features, and state policies. We used multivariate regression to identify independent predictors of three outcomes: 1) Medicaid-reliant payer mix (hospitals for which at least 25% of hospital days are paid for by Medicaid); 2) safety net revenue-to-cost ratio (Medicaid and Medicare Disproportionate Share Hospital payments and local government transfers, divided by charity care costs and Medicaid payment shortfall); and 3) operating margin. Medicaid-reliant payer mix was positively associated with more inclusive state Medicaid eligibility criteria and more minority patients. More inclusive Medicaid eligibility and higher Medicaid reimbursement rates positively predicted safety net revenue-to-cost ratio. University governance was the strongest positive predictor of operating margin. Safety net hospital financial performance varied considerably. Academic hospitals had higher operating margins, while more generous Medicaid eligibility and reimbursement policies improved hospitals' ability to recoup costs. Institutional and state policies may outweigh patient demographics in the financial health of safety net hospitals.