Spatial analysis of 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) concentrations and probabilistic risk to marine organisms in Hiroshima Bay, Japan.

We analyzed the spatial distribution of an antifouling biocide, 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) in the surface water and sediments of Hiroshima Bay, Japan to determine the extent of contamination by this biocide. A quantitative estimate of the environmental concentration distribution (ECD) and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for marine organisms were derived by using a Bayesian statistical model to carry out a probabilistic ecological risk analysis, such as calculation of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF). The spatial distribution analysis supported the notion that Sea-Nine 211 is used mainly for treatment of ship hulls in Japan. The calculated EPAF suggests that approximately up to a maximum of 0.45% of marine species are influenced by the toxicity of Sea-Nine 211 in Hiroshima Bay. In addition, estimation of the ecological risk with a conventional risk quotient method indicated that the risk was a cause for concern in Hiroshima Bay.